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#429044 09/07/17 05:42 AM
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Irma is coming our way, so I may be off-line for a few days. I'm sure to lose power, and probably Internet too.

If you have any reason to contact Norton Music via e-mail, be assured I'll answer as soon as I'm back on line. Right now I'm putting up storm shutters.

Notes


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Notes, if you and Leilani want to get out of dodge until the storm passes, you're welcome here. Seriously.

Same offer extends to anyone else in the storm's path who might want to get away for a few days without incurring costs for lodging and meals.

If you can get to the Greensboro (GSO) or Charlotte (CLT) airport, I'll come pick you up if you let me know the flight number and arrival time.

If you'd rather drive, contact me by PM and I'll give you my address & phone number.

Last edited by Pat Marr; 09/07/17 07:46 AM. Reason: extended the invitation
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Sending our thoughts from PG Music for you! It's a tragedy what's happening in the south right now, with the storms and floods and all.


Cheers,
Deryk
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Good luck and be safe out there! Looking to be a bad one!

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We have quite a few Florida forum members and wish the best to all of them.

J&B

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Originally Posted By: Janice & Bud
We have quite a few Florida forum members and wish the best to all of them.

J&B



I agree. Please if you can get out of Irma's path. This one looks like a killer.


Me, it's not about how many times you fail, it's about how many times you get back up.
Cop, that's not how field sobriety tests work.

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Notes Norton, I feel for you. This storm looks horrible.


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My cousin and wife from Key West got out of dodge yesterday. Maybe you should batten down those hatches and get out of town. Go visit Nashville for a couple of days.


I smashed the hell out of my car today. When the cops came I told him "Officer, that guy was BOTH texting and drinking a beer." The cop said "Sir, he has every right to do that. I mean, it's HIS living room..."
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Thanks for the offers and well wishes.

I've been through a lot of hurricanes, and while nothing is certain, in my situation I believe it's safer to stay here than to drive on the highway with all the crazies.

My home is on the Eastern Sand Ridge - 32' above sea level - while I may get water in the house, I won't be flooded, I'm on top of a hill.

The house is well constructed to building codes that were enacted before the developers started bribing government to water them down.

I have drop-down storm awnings, and storm panels for protection from flying objects.

I have a very good roof for hurricanes with an excellent track record.

I have well water and will lose power, probably anywhere from a few days to over a week, but I have a generator and lots of gas. Using it frugally I can probably last a couple of weeks.

At the first signs, when it got halfway across the pond and before the news media made people hysterical, I quietly bought non-perishable food that I will eat anyway, recharged all my batteries, checked the generator, checked the emergency radio, checked the emergency lights, bottled a lot of water in re-purposed cheap jug wine bottles that I asked for when playing condominium gigs and cleaned out trash cans to store water to flush the toilet.

today I put up the storm panels, I'll drop the awnings Saturday. I also cleaned the gutters, policed the yard to remove anything that would likely become airborne, and checked with my close neighbors to see if they needed help.

Of course there never is a guarantee that I'll be safe, but the odds are overwhelmingly in my favor.

What I don't look forward to is the loss of electricity and the clean-up after the storm subsides.

I hope everyone here in Florida and Georgia makes it through OK.

As long as I have power and Internet, I'll be taking care of business and visiting here.

And right now I'm bummed that I had two nice gigs this weekend, and they are both cancelled. And if Irma destroys a clubhouse in Okeechobee, I'm out of a New Year's Eve gig at over $1,000 more than our normal one-nighter price frown (Now that's a true Floridian attitude).

Notes

Last edited by Notes Norton; 09/07/17 03:41 PM. Reason: typo

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Notes,
It sounds like you've made good preparations, and I hope everything turns out OK for you and all in the path of this hurricane.


Have Fun!
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Good Luck Notes!




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Notes, and all our FL based forum friends, my family's prayers are with you.

Josie

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Fingers crossed for everyone that you all stay safe and well.


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Yes, my thoughts are also with our friends in the area; Notes, Danny C, John Ford, Cuban Pete, and all of the others. I hope you can all stay safe.


Cheers,
Keith
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Batten down the hatches. Thar's a storm a comin'.

Stay safe. I saw something funny the other day.... since I'm in search and rescue.... put hotdogs in your pockets so the search dogs will find you first. There's some truth in that.

Seriously.... be safe and don't take chances.

edit: Richard Branson decided to ride the storm out on his private island. He had a really well built house that included hurricane rated shutters for the windows and doors. Apparently it got so bad that they retreated to the wine cellar. (Now that's the kind of storm shelter everyone needs...right?) When they came out, the house was totally destroyed above them.

Last edited by Guitarhacker; 09/08/17 02:40 AM.

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Notes, I hope your Wine Cellar keeps you amply supplemented, and the house remains untouched. crazy


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Thanks for all the well wishes for myself and the other Florida folks. I too hope we all make it through this with minimal problems.

Notes


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Many many friends in Florida and we are greatly concerned. My prayers are not only with them but also that they had the good sense to evacuate early enough.

Stay safe Notes.

Later,

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Best wishes for all in the storms path. We left the Tampa area early this morning and just got to our first stop in Tallahassee. We're going to monitor the storm from here and if need be head to Birmingham on Sunday. I packed up my studio equipment and put it in my truck to keep it safe so I wont be able to record for a few days.


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Well I'm in the western panhandle of Florida, so unless it decides to take a sharp left turn, we should be fine here. That being said, we've got our supplies (water, food, gas, propane, batteries, flashlights, etc) and should be fine. My house was built in 1959 and has done well for 60 years (although I've only lived in it 3 1/2 years), I suspect it will weather the storm fine. Our neighborhood tends not to flood , so that should be good. We had no issues with the heavy rainfall back in 2014 that dropped 26 inches of water in 24 hours.

My prayers are definitely with those who are in the path of the storm, and it looks like Jose is coming up right behind Irma.


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Best wishes and good luck to all those affected.

Peter

PeterF #429257 09/09/17 07:27 AM
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PeterF, what do you get in Australia? Would they call them cyclones down there?


I smashed the hell out of my car today. When the cops came I told him "Officer, that guy was BOTH texting and drinking a beer." The cop said "Sir, he has every right to do that. I mean, it's HIS living room..."
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most recent storm path puts Tommy Adams and Floyd Jane directly in the crosshairs. Please check in later to let us know you're OK... Likewise anybody else whose lives are impacted by Irma.

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My 93 year old mother and 70 year old sister live alone together just north of Tampa in Hudson.

Friday morning my sister's son flew into Tampa to ride out the storm with them. But then decided to keep the rental car and drive up to a family house in North Carolina. Last report all were tucked away high and dry.


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Originally Posted By: eddie1261
PeterF, what do you get in Australia? Would they call them cyclones down there?


Yes we get cyclones - last one to hit was Cyclone Debbie in March. It was a category 5 and hit the Whitsunday Islands in Queensland.

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Out of curiosity I looked up the differences if any and hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons are all the same, they just use different names in different parts of the world.

Bob


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Originally Posted By: jazzmammal
Out of curiosity I looked up the differences if any and hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons are all the same, they just use different names in different parts of the world.

Bob


They spin CCW north of the equator and CW south.

Again best to our Florida friends. We are forecast for 40-60 mph gusts in middle Ga but nothing compared to what you folks are facing. Mega positive thoughts to you.

J&B

Pat Marr #429294 09/09/17 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted By: Pat Marr
most recent storm path puts Tommy Adams and Floyd Jane directly in the crosshairs. Please check in later to let us know you're OK... Likewise anybody else whose lives are impacted by Irma.


I live in Pinellas county (the little finger by Tampa) but we evacuated to Tallahassee.


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Originally Posted By: jazzmammal
Out of curiosity I looked up the differences if any and hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons are all the same, they just use different names in different parts of the world.

Bob

Yes, my undstanding is, as you say, they are similar but called differenct names dependent on where they occur geographically.
Hurricanes in the Americas, monsoons in Asia, and cyclones in tropical Australia & the South Pacific.


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Keith
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Looks like Irma doesn't have us in the cross-hairs anymore.

We've been getting wind and rain since yesterday afternoon, it's a huge storm, but unless she changes her mind, we are spared the worst of it here.

They are predicting hurricane force winds of Cat 1 strength around here, and we've weathered worse than that.

We still have power and at times Internet the goes out, but we're doing well.

Now my heart goes out to those on the west coast of our state, especially the Tampa Bay area. There are a lot of homes on low ground around there.

Irma seems to be a wet storm - at least the part we're getting (lots of horizontal rain) and the water produces the longest lasting damage.

I think it's time for everyone to take climate change very seriously.

Good luck to all in her path.

Notes


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Climate change? This has nothing to do with that.

It's like I tell my daughters, when they say this is the worst storm SINCE...then it's nothing new. Just a few minutes ago the news listed the Cat 4 and 5 storms that have hit Florida since 1850.

This is such a complex thing. I'm hardly a denier it's just that so many sources have an obvious bias one way or the other. I try to find sources that seem to be unbiased like this one:

https://www.livescience.com/9349-increase-major-hurricanes-linked-warmer-seas.html

They go into it in pretty good detail. There are parts of this that both sides can point to and say "See, I told you so". I find it interesting that after Katrina the climate alarmists all told us that this was just the beginning then we go 12 years without a single hurricane hitting the US. That at least allowed New Orleans to finish their protective barriers.

Bob


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I remember monsoon season from Vietnam. 40 straight hours of deafening rain, then 3 days of 100 degree, humid days. Then 40 more hours of rain. And 4 days of hot and humid to soak the water back up into the clouds. Then, yep. 40 more hours of rain. What we DIDN'T see was 185 mph winds! And there was nothing even resembling a sewer system so the who base camp had boardwalks that were 18 to 20 inches high so we had somewhere to walk to work. Trucks could move, but jeeps were too low to handle the water. The snorkel air intake was fine but the body was not built like a boat hull. LOL!

Chulaivet was there too and I am sure remembers monsoons.


I smashed the hell out of my car today. When the cops came I told him "Officer, that guy was BOTH texting and drinking a beer." The cop said "Sir, he has every right to do that. I mean, it's HIS living room..."
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Originally Posted By: jazzmammal

... I find it interesting that after Katrina the climate alarmists all told us that this was just the beginning then we go 12 years without a single hurricane hitting the US. That at least allowed New Orleans to finish their protective barriers.

Bob


Hey Bob, I'm confused about your comment regarding hurricanes not hitting US during the last 12 years. Start with Matthew (2016) and go back. Matthew is well remembered by those of us in the SE. Move to Sandy that killed 116 and caused $70 billion in damage in 2012. Then step back to Irene that caused $16 billion damage in 2011. And there are more. I'm sure the millions having their lives changed by Irma aren't interested in the etiology of bigger storms but Irma is IMO more part of a progression than an outlier...this also the first year in recorded history that the US has been hit with two cat 4's within the same year.

Bud (aka weather geek)

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Well, the 12 years is referring to major hurricanes because that's what all the climate talk is about. Huge, major Cat 5's that are going to completely destroy everything. Florida is rendered uninhabitable and so is the Gulf.

Sandy and Irene were not major hurricanes. Matthew certainly was but not by the time it got to the US and it wasn't a direct hit either, it stayed offshore. Irene was a Cat 1 and Sandy wasn't a hurricane at all which is why it was named Superstorm Sandy. It was threatening to be a hurricane but it never developed an eye then it merged with a nor'easter storm. That was a real fluke, a few days timing one way or the other and it would have been just another rain squall. I know, to the people who suffered who cares, right?

The other thing is when people quote damage in dollars implying this storm was worse than that storm, the damage numbers keeps going up and up because of all the development along the coasts. What does your area look like now compared to 20 years ago? When you're talking about media coverage of what all too often is unwarranted climate change hysteria it's important to understand those details.

Still I agree all the scientists say the oceans have warmed a half degree and that helps to fuel hurricanes. But, then you read about some of the most powerful storms around the world over the last 75-100 years that happened in years where the oceans actually cooled.

Regardless of what all this means I really feel strongly about one thing. China, India, Russia, Asia, Mexico, Central and South America, the Middle East and the rest of the crap third world are such horrible polluters that we could completely bankrupt this country and lower our greenhouse emissions to virtually zero and it would not make one bit of difference. China negotiated a 20 year "catch up" period before they have to start with serious greenhouse restrictions. And after 20 years, those who believe they will actually do it please raise your hands. I have such a deal for you, it's gonna truly make you rich...

Notes once you get back to this thread, I sincerely hope you and your family are ok. This little diversion is just that, the important thing is you two made it through this.

Bob



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floyd made it through in good order.

J&B

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Um, Bob...

"In 2014, the top carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters were China, the United States, the European Union, India, the Russian Federation, and Japan."

Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data

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Both floyd and Tom good. Both were in direct path. Best to all others!

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Originally Posted By: Janice & Bud
Both floyd and Tom good. Both were in direct path. Best to all others!


This is great news!


Me, it's not about how many times you fail, it's about how many times you get back up.
Cop, that's not how field sobriety tests work.

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Originally Posted By: Janice & Bud
Both floyd and Tom good. Both were in direct path. Best to all others!


good news, and thanks to you for taking the initiative to call them and relay the news about their safety to the rest of us!

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China, India, Russia. That's basically what I wrote isn't it? And you're going to trust China and Russia especially to live up to their promises? I'm not saying there isn't a potential problem, my comment is about the pretty useless proposed solutions and the fact that so far there's little evidence of increased hurricane risk.

I'm also very happy all of our forum friends have come through this ok but we haven't heard from Notes yet. He's written many times that they're at the far end of internet service in a rural area. They may be offline for some time.

Bob


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Originally Posted By: jazzmammal
.........
Regardless of what all this means I really feel strongly about one thing. China, India, Russia, Asia, Mexico, Central and South America, the Middle East and the rest of the crap third world are such horrible polluters that we could completely bankrupt this country and lower our greenhouse emissions to virtually zero and it would not make one bit of difference. China negotiated a 20 year "catch up" period before they have to start with serious greenhouse restrictions. And after 20 years, those who believe they will actually do it please raise your hands. I have such a deal for you, it's gonna truly make you rich...

..............
Bob



Bob I agree 100%.


Me, it's not about how many times you fail, it's about how many times you get back up.
Cop, that's not how field sobriety tests work.

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MarioD #429455 09/11/17 08:50 AM
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Dome Homes seem to hang in there through hurricanes, quakes and tornadoes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxsSBHTFk3w

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Originally Posted By: Janice & Bud
Both floyd and Tom good. Both were in direct path. Best to all others!


Really glad to hear that!


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Bob I'm sorry I can't let this one go. It's too important. The elephant in the room amongst the world's worst polluters is the United States. China has recently overtaken the USA as the worst offender year on year but if you look at total carbon emissions over all years the USA is alone at the top of the pack. The point is if the USA committed to reducing greenhouse gases to virtually zero it would make a huge difference, not no difference as you stated. Many developing countries including China (leading the way in developing alternative energy sources) have gone beyond promises to put in place carbon reduction strategies. It's not really fair to pick on poorer countries when the USA is back pedalling on the few promises they have made.

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In the United States:

Americans constitute 5% of the world's population but consume 24% of the world's energy.

On average, one American consumes as much energy as
  • 2 Japanese
  • 6 Mexicans
  • 13 Chinese
  • 31 Indians
  • 128 Bangladeshis
  • 307 Tanzanians
  • 370 Ethiopians

If undeveloped countries consumed at the same rate as the US, four complete planets the size of the Earth would be required.

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Matcham, I could rip apart your premise point by point, you wouldn't agree and this could go on and on. I won't do that because this is the wrong forum for it. I've carried this on too far as it is. This is Notes thread and we're all concerned about him and his wife.

You sound like a nice person, if you ever need any assistance with this software or digital audio in general, just ask I'll be happy to help if I can.

Bob


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Matcham #429482 09/11/17 01:45 PM
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Originally Posted By: Matcham
Bob I'm sorry I can't let this one go. It's too important. The elephant in the room amongst the world's worst polluters is the United States. China has recently overtaken the USA as the worst offender year on year but if you look at total carbon emissions over all years the USA is alone at the top of the pack. The point is if the USA committed to reducing greenhouse gases to virtually zero it would make a huge difference, not no difference as you stated. Many developing countries including China (leading the way in developing alternative energy sources) have gone beyond promises to put in place carbon reduction strategies. It's not really fair to pick on poorer countries when the USA is back pedalling on the few promises they have made.

Of course the USA has been a leading polluter and continues its role. And of course the USA could improve the world by going greener. And we have probably already missed the huge opportunity of being a leading alternative energy developer. But hey, we're gonna open up new coal mines because that is the future!

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I'm actually open to having my premises ripped apart point by point but agree we are already pushing the limits of forum etiquette and should let it lie. You go your way and I'll go mine as a wise man once said. And no hard feelings.

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Great news so far that our family are safe.


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If any one wants to read more about energy consumption here are a few articles on said subject. Note that all do not agree on who is first and depending on what side of the discussion you are on you can back it up with this data.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Worlds-10-Biggest-Energy-Gluttons.html

https://top5ofanything.com/list/7f673853/Countries-that-Consume-the-Most-Total-Energy-

(note the amount of coal that China uses)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita

(a little misleading as China and other countries have large populations)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_primary_energy_consumption_and_production


Me, it's not about how many times you fail, it's about how many times you get back up.
Cop, that's not how field sobriety tests work.

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A photo to put in perspective what has happened in Florida with Irma. This is a large oak tree that thankfully missed our house. Had it been one of the many a bit closer and fallen it would not have been good. Now we are 200 miles inland AND Irma was reduced to a tropical storm. Yet trees like this are down all over Ga and a million are w/o power. I can't imagine what the Fl folks went through. Our town looks like a war zone in places. The highest gust recorded in my area was 68mph and we have forum members who experienced twice that!

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I'm glad it missed your house and that no one got hurt. I feel your pain as we lost 4 trees during a high wind storm with gushes up to 80 MPH. Luckily they all missed our house also. Rain soaked ground and high winds are not a good combination.


Me, it's not about how many times you fail, it's about how many times you get back up.
Cop, that's not how field sobriety tests work.

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very glad to read the phrase "missed our house"

How many trees are down on your property" Do you need friends with chain saws to help you clean up??

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J&B

I was in Biloxi MS for Camille ('69) - THAT was REALLY bad (and I'm from Johnstown PA, you'll get it if you look it up) as well as three other large typhoons in early '70's in various locations in S.E.A, including Nora, I guess I'm just lucky that way wink , not to mention an actual war zone, multiple times, in that same time frame and area.

I am truly glad that tree missed your house, I really am. I wish NO ONE harm or ill will (well, that's not completely true, there is a group of "people" I would nuke out of existence tomorrow and sleep like a baby for the rest of my life. No, I do not mean NoKo (yet), but that's for a less genteel forum)

Hope you, and all affected forums members, get things back to normal soon

Moderators,

This whole thread grows very tiresome and since NOT even close to anything music related I recommend it be locked (it will get out of hand).

Larry


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Pat Marr #429567 09/12/17 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted By: Pat Marr
very glad to read the phrase "missed our house"

How many trees are down on your property" Do you need friends with chain saws to help you clean up??


Pat, that's kind of you. We have a five mile hiking/biking trail on our and a neighbors property and haven't yet assessed all that will need to be done. But the local mountain bikers like our trail and I sure will be willing to help restore them. Access to our house was spared and a private road we have through the property only has a couple of trees on it that I can cut. Some of the big ones like in the pic can just rot where they are. We had a violent thunder storm nine years ago that laid down about 20 old oaks.

Now those folks in Florida are the ones that are working their butts off. Talked to one this morning and he had a 12 hour session with the chainsaw yesterday alone! Makes my situation seem minor. Thanks again and mega great thought to our Fl members!

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Happy to hear you guys are safe! My Floridian friends are also safe, thank goodness.


Cheers,
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So you have firewood for the next what, 17 years? Look at the size of that tree!!!


I smashed the hell out of my car today. When the cops came I told him "Officer, that guy was BOTH texting and drinking a beer." The cop said "Sir, he has every right to do that. I mean, it's HIS living room..."
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Thanks to all for the well wishes and prayers. We have an ongoing tragic situation here in SW Florida. The eye went directly over our house with winds clocked at 142 mph. Trees and power lines down everywhere and houses destroyed. An estimated 2 weeks before power is restored. Our chainsaws and generators are running non stop. Gas lines over a mile long if you're lucky enough to find any. Driving is the definition of anarchy with no stop lights anywhere. No ice and very little food. The flooding is unimaginable. We have many friends who have lost everything. On top of all this we have quite a few family members in Houston who are under water. Mother Nature is pissed at us. Kind of like how I feel about anyone who wants to close this thread because they find it tiresome. Come on down here I'll show you tired. Thanks again everyone. We will get through this, Tom

Last edited by tommyad; 09/13/17 01:31 AM.
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Originally Posted By: Samuel Davis
Originally Posted By: Pat Marr
most recent storm path puts Tommy Adams and Floyd Jane directly in the crosshairs. Please check in later to let us know you're OK... Likewise anybody else whose lives are impacted by Irma.


I live in Pinellas county (the little finger by Tampa) but we evacuated to Tallahassee.


I live in the county as well, and luckily, nothing hit my area. I evaluated to Georgia.


Computer: Macbook Pro, 16 inch 2021
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tommyad #429649 09/13/17 03:48 AM
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Originally Posted By: tommyad
Thanks to all for the well wishes and prayers. We have an ongoing tragic situation here in SW Florida. The eye went directly over our house with winds clocked at 142 mph. Trees and power lines down everywhere and houses destroyed. An estimated 2 weeks before power is restored. Our chainsaws and generators are running non stop. Gas lines over a mile long if you're lucky enough to find any. Driving is the definition of anarchy with no stop lights anywhere. No ice and very little food. The flooding is unimaginable. We have many friends who have lost everything. On top of all this we have quite a few family members in Houston who are under water. Mother Nature is pissed at us. Kind of like how I feel about anyone who wants to close this thread because they find it tiresome. Come on down here I'll show you tired. Thanks again everyone. We will get through this, Tom


Man! I can't even begin to imagine what it would be like to go through a storm like that, must have been a terrifying experience. And then the aftermath as well, too much!
All the best to you and yours!

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Tommy and Islansoul, I am glad that you and your families are safe. You can replace things but not people.


Me, it's not about how many times you fail, it's about how many times you get back up.
Cop, that's not how field sobriety tests work.

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Tommy, thanks for reporting in to let us know you and Benji made it through the storm! I know you are probably overwhelmed in every direction right now, but as time allows, I hope you will keep us posted and let us know if there is anything we can do to help.

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Originally Posted By: tommyad
Thanks to all for the well wishes and prayers. We have an ongoing tragic situation here in SW Florida. The eye went directly over our house with winds clocked at 142 mph. Trees and power lines down everywhere and houses destroyed. An estimated 2 weeks before power is restored. Our chainsaws and generators are running non stop. Gas lines over a mile long if you're lucky enough to find any. Driving is the definition of anarchy with no stop lights anywhere. No ice and very little food. The flooding is unimaginable. We have many friends who have lost everything. On top of all this we have quite a few family members in Houston who are under water. Mother Nature is pissed at us. Kind of like how I feel about anyone who wants to close this thread because they find it tiresome. Come on down here I'll show you tired. Thanks again everyone. We will get through this, Tom


Best to you buddy. 142mph was exactly double what we experienced. I tried to give some perspective of what y'all were going through by showing what a 65mph wind could do but it elicited a "tiresome" response. We were out all morning with the chainsaw and thankful that we don't have to face the cleanup of S Florida much less the life changing aspects of it for many people. Ya'll are tough -- hang in. Music making again will come soon enough.

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I just talked to Leilani and Bob Norton and they are OK.


Jim
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Originally Posted By: Janice & Bud
A photo to put in perspective what has happened in Florida with Irma. This is a large oak tree that thankfully missed our house. Had it been one of the many a bit closer and fallen it would not have been good. Now we are 200 miles inland AND Irma was reduced to a tropical storm. Yet trees like this are down all over Ga and a million are w/o power. I can't imagine what the Fl folks went through. Our town looks like a war zone in places. The highest gust recorded in my area was 68mph and we have forum members who experienced twice that!


Janice and Bud,

That's incredible! I'm really thankful that you made it through. I cannot even begin to imagine what a 68 mph wind is like. Your picture really does say it all.

Thinking of you both,
Noel


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Jim #429677 09/13/17 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted By: Jim
I just talked to Leilani and Bob Norton and they are OK.


Excellent news!


Me, it's not about how many times you fail, it's about how many times you get back up.
Cop, that's not how field sobriety tests work.

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tommyad #429678 09/13/17 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted By: tommyad
Thanks to all for the well wishes and prayers. We have an ongoing tragic situation here in SW Florida. The eye went directly over our house with winds clocked at 142 mph. Trees and power lines down everywhere and houses destroyed. An estimated 2 weeks before power is restored. Our chainsaws and generators are running non stop. Gas lines over a mile long if you're lucky enough to find any. Driving is the definition of anarchy with no stop lights anywhere. No ice and very little food. The flooding is unimaginable. We have many friends who have lost everything. On top of all this we have quite a few family members in Houston who are under water. Mother Nature is pissed at us. Kind of like how I feel about anyone who wants to close this thread because they find it tiresome. Come on down here I'll show you tired. Thanks again everyone. We will get through this, Tom


Tom,

I've been thinking quite a bit about you and floyd and your families. I'm really glad to read that you all fared as well as possible in the mind-boggling circumstances. I've watched the news on TV and it leaves me speechless.

I hope that that often spoken about 'light at the end of the tunnel' gets brighter for you all with each passing day.

Sending lots of good wishes your way,
Noel


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Tom - I can't imagine what that must have been like - I don't think anyone can - those speed winds for that amount of time have got to be life altering in more ways than one. Hurricane force winds began hitting us about 8 PM. The power went out about 9 PM - so the rest was experienced in pitch dark without knowing what was happening. For the next 8 hours. Seeing pictures previously of the waters in the bay gone was frightening. Never saw how they returned. We were fortunate that it was only a category 2 by the time it got here and the eye shifted a bit to the east. Our house is surrounded by 50-60 ft. oaks and 80 ft pines. All remain standing. No large limbs fell. No broken windows. The pool screen held (assumed that would be completely gone). We had a lot of small debris - which is just a couple of days of clean up. Our power has come back on, but a large part of the Bay area is still out. Our only remaining problem is finding gas. All the stations are empty. We had a full tank, so traveled to Ana Maria Island this morning to help with clean up there at the in-laws. We were lucky. My heart goes out to those who were not.

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See PM

Again Wish all affect well

Larry


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OOOOhhh...

Forgot to mention...

I packed up ALL of my music equipment and put it all in contractor heavy duty garbage bags to keep them from getting wet in case we were flooded or the windows were all blown out.

3 acoustic guitars.
2 electric guitars.
An electric bass.
An amplifier.
A digital piano.
A mandolin.
A banjo.
A fiddle.
My effects rack - preamp, compressor, patch bay, power supply.
Monitors (2).
The computer I record and mix on.



The thread is music related.




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Originally Posted By: floyd jane
OOOOhhh...

Forgot to mention...

I packed up ALL of my music equipment and put it all in contractor heavy duty garbage bags to keep them from getting wet in case we were flooded or the windows were all blown out.

3 acoustic guitars.
2 electric guitars.
An electric bass.
An amplifier.
A digital piano.
A mandolin.
A banjo.
A fiddle.
My effects rack - preamp, compressor, patch bay, power supply.
Monitors (2).
The computer I record and mix on.



The thread is music related.




Well played FJ, well played! laugh

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Next time just ship all that equipment up here, I'll keep it safe for ya ..


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Back on line (for a while anyway).

We lost power and phone, the phone is going in and out, and the power is still down. I have a generator but only run it a few hours a day. Cool the fridge, turn it off, and in a few hours repeat as needed.

We weathered the storm well. Ft Pierce got the highest winds in the area, 100mph, but that's nothing compared to the west coast. We missed the worst of it.

The phone company says they are running on generators (I assume at the end of the fiber optics) and that as the generator runs out of fuel, they have to go out and refuel it, so it will be off and on.

Power company says Sunday by 8:12 PM.

We live in a sparsely populated section of town. The lots are huge (averaging 50 acres) and there is one long road for 15 miles with only about 4 short branch streets. I'm on one of them. But since the power company doesn't pass many homes per mile, they can get more people on for the same amount of time in dense neighborhoods. So that's where they should work first.

We have water, and non-perishable food. We have a water well so when the generator is on we replenish the drinking water. I have enough gas to last until Friday, and stations are opening so that will be no problem.

We lost a lot of tree limbs, but nothing major. It took two days to clean up, but without phone or power, there was not much else to do.

The house held up well, it's seen worse than this. I still have one more storm shutter to take down, but I'll wait until we get power because it filters the sun coming in the picture window, keeping it a little cooler here.

My neighbor fishes the lagoon, and has done so for 60+ years. He says the ocean has risen about 9 inches since he was a boy, The banks of the lagoon took a beating, and the road caved in in a few places.

And whether or not you believe +97% of the climate scientists about climate change, I think it's still a good idea to limit our air pollution and plant trees.

Glad to hear others on the list are safe. I may be back soon or not. It depends on the DSL.

Notes


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Originally Posted By: Notes Norton
And whether or not you believe +97% of the climate scientists about climate change, I think it's still a good idea to limit our air pollution and plant trees.

+1

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Very happy to hear from you Notes. As for trees...

https://www.newsforshoppers.com/record-amount-of-us-trees-number-highest-in-history/3673783/

The US is doing fine for trees, the problem is in the Amazon rain forest and southeast Asia:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/15/amazon-deforestation-increased-one-third

Bob


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Power came back on yesterday. Ah, life is almost back to normal. Still some clean up to do, put away storm panels, service the generator, help neighbors who fled the storm clean up theirs, and so on. But we have lights, refrigerator, and Internet. Life is good.

Yes Bob, the biggest problem is with the tropical rain forests. But we all can help with a tree or two,

And I respectfully disagree. I don't think the US is doing fine. I've seen hundreds of miles of trees bulldozed over in Florida and elsewhere for housing developments that replaced the trees with lawns.

That's a lot of CO2 not getting converted to O2.

I'm a believer that if a lot of people, each does a little, the end result can be huge.

When I bought my house, which used to be in a mixed scrub-oak, sand pine, sabal palm, and palmetto forest there wasn't a tree on it. The previous owner didn't like the leaves falling.

There are remnants of the forest, and it was thick.

Now I have over a dozen live oaks, 11 sabal palms, 4 royal poincianas, 3 gumbo limbos, one neem, a few sea grapes, and one ficus that the birds planted. And a few carrotwoods have also volunteered. 27 years later, I'm back in a 1/2 acre forest.

My yard is cooler and the shade is welcome. It no longer needs to be watered and fertilized, and I have ferns and other ground cover plants to minimize what I have to mow.

I live near the Indian River Lagoon on the East coast of Florida. A former Riverkeeper came to my house to borrow a PA amp, and he said my yard was perfect for the health of the lagoon and the fish that spawn in it (and I like to eat fish).

The way I figure it is if >97% of peer-reviewed, published, climate scientists agree, and a few dissenters have been found taking million dollar bribes from oil and coal companies, that there is at least a 97% chance that humans are either causing or accelerating the global warming. So I'll go with that. If I erred, I've erred on the side of caution, and if I'm right, my children and grandchildren will know I've done what I can.

The seas have risen so much around here that Miami Beach regularly floods at high tide. Even the Republican Mayor who was a climate denier has turned around. Miami is consulting with people from The Netherlands about how to keep the water out.

Las Olas area of Ft. Lauderdale (The Venice Of America) suffers the same fate. I grew up there, and never-ever saw the tide overflow the banks until the late 1990s. Now it covers Las Olas Blvd frequently.

Salt water intrusion has happened up to 6 miles inland to what were fresh water wells.

Of course less than 3% of peer reviewed climate scientists say this is natural, but I choose to go with the over 97%.

I know there are a lot of fake news exaggerations on both side of the coin, and they often look very convincing and have credible sounding names. (They did the same thing with tobacco smoke.) But if you look at the peer reviewed scientific journals, the vast majority of climatologists think there is no question about the human contribution global warming.

And although it's very difficult to say, one super-storm Sandy, or Irma, or Katrina is the cause of climate change, looking at the total weather extremes seem to fit the predictions that the climatologists as far back as the 1950s predicted.

Add the sea level rise, the Arctic melting, the glaciers receding, and the permafrost melting, I think we need to all do something.

And yes, China is a big polluter, but they are also installing Solar and Wind at a pace that dwarfs our efforts. When I was there, they were damming the Yangtze river, relocating millions of people, moving historic structures, and the people I talked with all seemed to agree that the cost was severe, but worth it to get better air (and the air in China was bad). So if it is a Chinese Hoax, they are spending zillions of dollars on that hoax. Rush Limbaugh who said Irma was a liberal climate change hoax, he evacuated his Florida home.

Still, it's impossible to prove with 100% accuracy, and the "Merchants Of Doubt" hired by the oil and coal companies capitalize on that fact. So we all choose to believe who we want to believe.

So I will continue to go with the 97% of peer-reviewed climatologists. I hope my children and grandchildren and all the others in those generation have a better world for our efforts. And if we are wrong, we haven't hurt anything. If the "other side" is wrong, the next generations will suffer.

I guess I'm still not over peace, love, and all that hippie philosophy.

Notes


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Your property sounds beautiful, who doesn't like all that greenery? I sure do, I would love to see it.

All I like to do when this subject comes up is point out the inconsistencies in this. I certainly don't deny what's happening. And of course I agree a lot of it is human caused too. I've seen several shows about the flooding in Miami and what they're trying to about it on a local level. On a planetary level though you can't believe squat. When it comes to China for example, you do understand that place is run by a pure dictatorship right? Red Chinese Communists, the People's Liberation Army and all that? Tianamen Square?

Imho, you can't believe a word they say, all their stats are whatever they want them to be and nobody can dissent or they disappear. As far as China's so called shift to being climate good guys:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/01/climate/china-energy-companies-coal-plants-climate-change.html

This is all about the third world as I mentioned earlier. People in the third world are now somewhat connected via the internet. They know full well how we and the other western countries live and since they're human beings just like everybody else, they want that for themselves. Who wouldn't?

That level of development requires power and lots of it which requires money and lots of that too. Of course pretty much all of those countries are so corrupt it's almost inconceivable to us. Just take one, Mexico. It's well known Mexico is right up there as one of the top two or three most corrupt countries in the world.

How can you believe anything these countries say? They can sign all the accords they want, so what? My friend has several time shares at Mexican resorts and they're beautiful, fun places to visit and all that but we like to leave the resorts and take a bus into town. That's where you see where they're really at and it's pretty bad. Heavy traffic and none of those vehicles have their pollution controls hooked up. Mexico City is right up there with Beijing for air quality. Mexico has as many natural resources as we do here but it's all controlled by the original families who got land grants from the Spanish king centuries ago.

Mexico is just one example, India, Asia, S. America and all the other crap holes around the world are the same. The people are fine, folks are folks, it's their governments. My only point is not that there isn't a problem, it's what can the US as a country do about it? To me we can all buy Priuses and Teslas which I think are great btw, plant all the trees we possibly can, and it will make little difference. Some maybe but nowhere near enough and to do the really radical overhaul using increasingly tougher regulations on industry and individuals will basically bankrupt our economy and to what end? In the final analysis it's not going to change the climate one tiny bit without all these third world countries doing the same and good luck with that. India has dead bodies floating down their rivers, and cows are sacred, can't be eaten or touched, how good do you think their air quality is? I just remembered something that looks like a fun place to visit, shipbreaking. Check this out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gu7yvFD4oc

What kind of EPA type regs do they have here? Zero. What kind of safety regs for the workers? Zero. How do they live? Barely. How much pollution is being generated here? Who knows, what do you think?

Ex hippies wearing rose colored glasses who think they are actually making a difference in the face of this? C'mon. You can find the same secret vids taken at places in China that are apart from the modern showcase factories in the development zones we all see on the news. Oh no, go ahead and read and see pics of what's really going on in China. Same crap, different flavor.

That's all I'm saying.

Bob


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What great timing..... CNN article just released today.

Climate change made Harvey and Irma worse




Steve

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Hmmmmm (as I said earlier "tiresome" becasue this is no longer a thread about checking on forum members and wishing them well, offering help and moral support. And it is definitely not "music" related.

Again ALL AFFECTED forum members: I WISH YOU WELL and God speed (oops did I bring in the deity?)

but as long as we are going there:

So let’s hear from some actual scientists (yes, there is one link below who is not a scientist but puts together a coherent counterpoint to one - as long as you actually listen to it). Being a "scientist" a troublesome mathematician, (no I don't play one on TV) who worked almost daily (for decades) with other mathematicians, physicists, statisticians, and "experimental'ists" - you know the kind of folks who are all from the “Missouri state of science” (aka "SHOW ME"). The kind of nose-to-the-grindstone professionals that would say something like:

"Give me your data (ALL THE DATA), method and other details of data collection (and how data verification was performed), data not included (and why, but give it to me anyway), models, model assumptions, equations, equation and model simplification(s) for things like 2nd, 3rd, 4th, ..nth order effects and nth order interactions. Considerations that had to be excluded or "assumed" because computationally unknown, unknowable, un-computable [even the best fluid dynamic models - have some assumed parameters, nth order partial differentials, and other aspects because there is no way to symbolize them, estimate their initial conditions, etc.]

How the models and equations were verified and validated plus the reports and studies SHOWING the verification and validation. How well did said models and equations work on interpolation of existing data, was there any re-sampling,...? even with perfect fits of data (and correlations of rho approaching 1/-1 doesn’t mean the equation or model can EXTRAPOLATE (i.e., predict) accurately, or even well, even one n-tuple point beyond the domain.

Plus a long list of OTHER pertinent FACTS - then finally tell me your testing hypotheses, statistical test methods and attributes (e.g., 1-beta: aka power of the statistical design, alpha, etc.), and finally the outcomes.

Now I will go out and re-exam this area myself, once I have my own understanding of it, then let's see if I, and OTHERS, can repeat your tests and analyses and after performing independent analyses get the same results. Maybe I'll do independent data collection, data verification, model verification, different types of numerical and statistical analyses and see IF I still get these results.

In actual (hard) science there is objective, constant, consistent, unchanging truth: there is no measurable criteria with the quality called: "consensus." Yes, a group of experts can (and we all of us almost always do) hold a consensus of opinion, or a consensus of the general effect of X on A - but it is never considered "proof" of X on A. Proof stands separate and apart and is repeatable and verifiable.

Even if consensus were an acceptable scientific principal asking the very group of "experts" whose funding, livelihood, and (peer) reputation depends mainly, if not SOLELY, on only one kind and direction for their studies and analyses that group is NOT the group to verify said studies and outcomes.

That's akin to

FBI: "Hey, mafia are you mugs still running numbers, bribing officials, corrupting unions...?"
Mafia: "Nah, the consensus of us mafioso members is we ain't never done nutin' like 'dat"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXxHfb66ZgM&t=981s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiKfWdXXfIs&t=231s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOGt3OzTXBs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrQxidb4xSQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzyARQZ5vkc

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/08/thanks-to-the-ipcc-the-public-doesnt-know-water-vapor-is-most-important-greenhouse-gas/

https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.html

and on and on and on.......


OUT HERE

Larry


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Bob the figures I mentioned earlier concerning the States' contribution to global CO2 emissions don't come from China or some other 'crappy third world country'. They come from a US government agency using their own data. Unless you believe the US government is as corrupt as all the other governments you casually throw around by name (possible - you seem to be on the extreme end of scepticism), then you might have to face the possibility that the US is part of the problem of global warming, and therefore needs to be part of the solution. And sorry, the schoolroom excuse "but others are doing it too" is not going to make the world a better place.

Larry, are you being ironic? Curious you should enter a discussion that you have repeatedly declared 'tiresome'.

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"I could rip apart your premise point by point"

I would not take on JM he seems like a Master Debater.

A bit of CO2 won't hurt anybody, see the ad


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCMzjJjuxQI

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Bob, I've been to China and talked to the citizens. They are fed up with the dirty air, and think the sacrifices are worth it. I saw them moving ancient monuments out of the Yangtze valley so when it floods they won't lose their heritage. I saw the new apartment buildings being built to replace the ones that will be submerged when the river rose. And I saw the construction of the dam.

Yes they have a corrupt communist government, and well, we have a corrupt capitalist/"corporationalist" government. While I believe capitalist is superior to communist, I'm not blind to the flaws in our system.

I don't think it does any good to point fingers at others, we can't change them. But we can change ourselves and instead of being the only civilized country out of the Paris agreement (for one example) we could be leading the world by embracing solar and wind, painting our roofs white, planting trees, getting rid of the gas guzzlers, eliminating or greatly reducing our dependence on Air Conditioning, and doing other things to set an example, instead of fighting it for the profits of the oil and coal companies.

I've been in Florida since 1957 and through the years I've seen the waters rise, and I've seen the storms break records after record.

When I was a child, upper 80s in my home town made front page news. Now 90s are common.

I resolve to do what I can both in my yard and at the ballot box to help myself and others survive these newer, seeming more powerful storms. (back on topic).

And I feel if enough of us do this, instead of pointing fingers, we can make a difference. And I think the US should be the leaders, not the followers.

Notes

Last edited by Notes Norton; 09/16/17 03:06 AM.

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Originally Posted By: Notes Norton
I think the US should be the leaders, not the followers.

+1

sslechta #429967 09/16/17 11:38 AM
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Note that CNN ran that. The very liberal "Blame Trump for everything since Lincoln got shot" media.

Trump opted out of the climate nonsense what, June? And within 90 days something HE did was responsible for hurricanes? To look at it from the other side, climate change happened during the 8 years of the liberal democrat president too. So is Obama 8 times as liable?

Everybody needs to turn the liberal news off. They do not deal in fact. They deal in bias and opinion skewed against the guy they don't like. They have never explained why, if Trump is the anti-Christ as they report, Hilary couldn't beat him.

Climate change has been in the mix for a century, since industry started polluting. It didn't just start to happen in 2017.

Last edited by eddie1261; 09/16/17 11:41 AM.

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Originally Posted By: Notes Norton

I think the US should be the leaders, not the followers



Big plus one .

The U.S.A. Always were the leaders .

I stay in Great Britain and the word here used to be U.S.A. Sneezes Then Britain gets a cold.

There always will be an influential country .

God Bless


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Originally Posted By: Notes Norton
I think the US should be the leaders, not the followers.

+1

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Originally Posted By: Janice & Bud
It's been a week. Part of this forum family are still w/o power, w/o access to gas, and knowing that the next rain can again bring flooding to their damaged homes. Mega positive thoughts to them during a prolonged recovery and may making music return for them as soon as possible.

J&B



Amen to that!

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Originally Posted By: Matcham
Bob the figures I mentioned earlier concerning the States' contribution to global CO2 emissions don't come from China or some other 'crappy third world country'. They come from a US government agency using their own data. Unless you believe the US government is as corrupt as all the other governments you casually throw around by name (possible - you seem to be on the extreme end of scepticism), then you might have to face the possibility that the US is part of the problem of global warming, and therefore needs to be part of the solution. And sorry, the schoolroom excuse "but others are doing it too" is not going to make the world a better place.

Larry, are you being ironic? Curious you should enter a discussion that you have repeatedly declared 'tiresome'.


Larry didn't express himself very elegantly but his point as I read it is very valid. To quote a famous person "There are lies, damn lies and statistics." It's all about the methodology used, the details of the research etc.

Here's something I just found that supports what I've written:

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-America-stacks-up-greenhouse-gas-emissions-180963560/

Note China emits TWICE what the US does because this is using CO2 equivalents, not just CO2 alone. See the quote again. Then add up India, Brazil and Russia and what do you get? About the same as China. Now you're at 21.25 vs 6.34. Basically a bit over 3 to 1 concerning emissions of those countries and the US. This has been my basic point all along. All of those countries are dictatorships or in the case of Brazil corrupt on a scale comparable to Mexico. I basically don't believe what kind of propaganda they put out. Oh yes, we're doing this and we're going to do that. Maybe.

Having said that am NOT a denier. There certainly seems to be a long term problem. The question is what can we do about it? That's where I'm a skeptic. The following is where the idea comes from that if the US completely eliminated 100% of emissions the net result in global temps would be undetectable:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmichaels/2013/07/25/reduce-u-s-carbon-emissions-to-zero-and-the-temperature-decrease-by-2100-will-be-undetectable/#2c06d5753909

Not being any kind of expert in this field I try to keep an open mind but I do read a lot. My general feeling is I don't trust dictatorships and corrupt governments. The UN in general is very much anti American as well as anti Semitic for that matter. Putting the worst human rights violators on the UN Human Rights Commission and stuff like that.

The corruption at the UN is legendary so why would I put much stock in what they say or do? Basically I don't. There's the old joke about a broken clock being correct twice a day. Sure, the most corrupt organizations can be correct once in a while but since they have zero credibility with me, I basically ignore what the UN says.

The good news is the private sector ie the free market, is making great strides in reducing these emissions. It's basic economics. Build something that people want and be able to sell it at a profit and everybody's happy. The electric car and hybrid industries seem to be doing well and so is alternative energy sources. Far from being any kind of Luddite, I'm a high tech supporter and love this stuff.

Bob



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It's been a week. Part of this forum family are still w/o power, w/o access to gas, and knowing that the next rain can again bring flooding to their damaged homes. Mega positive thoughts to them during a prolonged recovery and may making music return for them as soon as possible.

J&B

PS. And another one is following a similar path. Here's hoping for a northward that spares everybody who was previously hit.

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Remember Bob that the population of China is 1,340,000,000. The population of the USA is 324,000,000. About 1/3 the population of China. Wouldn't logic say that 3 times as many people emit 3 times the amount of hydrocarbons?

You are spot on though. Statistics can never lie. Statistics are not conditional. They are cold, factual and impersonal with no "but" attached. So, the fact that China has 3 times as many people may explain WHY they emit 3 times as much, but it's the 3 times more that damages the ozone.

I had the "pleasure" of watching the hippies protest a nuclear plant when it was being built 60 miles east of Cleveland. A reporter asked one of them "In a situation where nuclear power was the only option, would you choose nuclear power or no power?" and that politician tried to duck by saying "There will always be options." The reporter replied "That wasn't my question. My question was IF there were no options", and the politician walked away from the interview. People with an agenda seem to disregard statistics and look for scapegoats.


I smashed the hell out of my car today. When the cops came I told him "Officer, that guy was BOTH texting and drinking a beer." The cop said "Sir, he has every right to do that. I mean, it's HIS living room..."
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Quote:
The following is where the idea comes from that if the US completely eliminated 100% of emissions the net result in global temps would be undetectable:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmichaels/2013/07/25/reduce-u-s-carbon-emissions-to-zero-and-the-temperature-decrease-by-2100-will-be-undetectable/#2c06d5753909


I'd be more interested in the article's thesis if the author's research and pronouncements weren't funded by the US fossil fuel industry.

Sorry to hear another storm is brewing so soon for you guys. And for other regions in your part of the world. Cyclone season is just around the corner here for northern Australia. Unfortunately more frequent and more intense storms are what we're getting too. Devastating to hear how people's lives are shattered.

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Still keeping this a very friendly discussion with an open mind, here's a very interesting take from Princeton that I had not heard before. Instead of the Forbes article saying that we could reduce to zero with no change we have this from Princeton that says it won't matter what we do, we're all screwed anyway. That was part of my original point don't forget. Are humans really capable of stopping this anyway?

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2013/11/24/even-if-emissions-stop-carbon-dioxide-could-warm-earth-centuries

Again the cost of doing this drastic CO2 and related emissions reductions is extreme especially in the short run. Very disruptive to the economy, long term maybe not so bad but people are doing their jobs NOW, who can afford to be put out of work and go for a complete retraining effort in their 40's or 50's?.

And now this article basically says it's worse than they thought, so much has been built into the system that we wouldn't see any cooling effect for centuries no matter what we do.

I'm absolutely NOT saying that's good news, I'm saying lets not completely disrupt the economy, lets let the economies of the world boom and that could bring about some high tech solutions we're not aware of yet. Or, high tech solutions that help us to survive the coming climate change if it actually happens. I'm still 50/50 on that.

Why you ask? The 93% consensus you say? Because I'm old enough to remember the 70's. Does everybody freaking out about the coming ICE AGE mean anything to you? No? Well, somewhere around the mid 70's was the exact same stuff about climate change as now. I mean exact, same shrill announcements, same blame, it's all the industrialized West's fault lead of course by the US. BUT it was about COOLING. We all were going to freeze to death, the glaciers were coming back to Manhattan, all that stuff. Lots of talk about the middle ages when the Thames and some European rivers froze, there's old masters paintings of people ice skating on those rivers. It was all coming back.

Want to know what two possible solutions were? Drop giga tons of COAL DUST in the Artic and Antarctic to help melt the ice and/or to put up huge reflective mirrors in orbit to beam down warming sunlight. I kid you not guys, this was all over the news at that time. This is one reason us old timers take all the new talk about global warming with a big grain of salt. Anybody reading this who's too young to have lived through all that hysteria just Google it. It's all there.

And I don't want to hear about how our new computer models are so much better than then, how the sensors are better and all that. Everybody of every age thinks their stuff is the best there ever was or ever will be. How good will the new stuff be in 20 years? Will it produce the same results as now? Very doubtful.

Bob


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Very well stated Bob. I agree 100%.


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I don't remember the ice age thing. Perhaps I never paid attention feeling it was "the sky is falling" extremism. I never built a bomb shelter or joined the Foxfire group of radicals either.

And as a moderate (slightly left on social issues, slightly right on fiscal issues) I tend to ignore press from both extremes. I don't get my news anywhere more left than The Atlantic or any more right than The Hill. Mostly I stay in the mainstream section in the middle taking the "Shows Liberal" and "Shows Conservative" press with a grain of salt. NPR, Washington Post, BBC, New York Times, AP, and Reuters work best for me, and since I don't watch TV, NBC, CBS, CNN, and ABC are out.



And that means both Fox and MSNBC are too radical for me as they fall outside the center area of this diagram. According to Politifact, Fox gets it 100% true 8% of the time, MSNBC gets 9%. Both get from "Half True" to "Pants On Fire" well over 70% of the time. So neither is news but instead propaganda.

Back on topic of hurricanes and other weather disasters...

Since almost all of the peer-reviewed, published climatologists agree that humans are probably at fault for the warming, and at least extreme contributors to it, I figure they are correct. After all science gave us the Internet, space flight, smart phones, and computers. Sure they can be wrong, but it's the current best bet. Remember they told us smoking was bad while the merchants of doubt told us 9 out of 10 doctors recommend Lucky Strike cigarettes.

And yes I know we might be screwed anyway. But sooner or later I'm going to die, I'm definitely and sadly screwed out of living forever.

I don't take the attitude that I may as well smoke, hang glide, drive recklessly, pick fights in bars with people bigger than me, use power tools without eye/ear protection, eat nothing but junk food because it tastes so good, skin dive with sharks, and so on. Instead I take care of myself so I can live as long as I can in a healthful state. It just makes sense to me. There is plenty of fun I can have with minimal risk.

And if the Earth is screwed and going to die anyway, I feel the same way, that I should treat it right and keep it healthy as long as I can, even if my contribution is in the great scheme of things very small.

And no, I don't believe switching from a coal and oil based energy system to a renewable will ruin the economy anymore than any other changes have. Sure it will put some out of work, and others to work, but that happened with the printing press, automobile, cotton gin, computer, transistor, sewing machine, nuclear reactor, television, supermarkets, department stores, e-tailers, and thousands of other changes.

Solar, wind, battery, and other industries will prosper as coal (which is dying due to market forces anyway) fades away.

The so-called NeoCons rallied around the invasion of Iraq because there was a 1% chance they were developing nukes, but dismiss the 97% chance that we are causing climate change that could mean the end of human life in a future generation. I personally don't get it.

I read a few university studies that say if we all paint our roofs white, it will buy 100 years. That would 'create' plenty of jobs (my roof is white BTW).

And I believe in both the private sector and the government. But I don't believe either one is 100% the way to go. Some things work better via the government, like fire, police, and military, and other things work better in the private sector.

Of course we in the US have been giving billions of dollars in tax breaks and outright corporate welfare to the private sector, making large segments no longer private, but instead quasi-government, and that's not free market economics. Too many times Privatization is a disguise for Profitization.

So the fact remains that the odds are that human activities are at least contributing to the extreme weather conditions, melting permafrost/ice caps, sea level rising, warming oceans, and so on.

And it's undeniable that human pollution is adversely affecting our collective health. So I feel it's my responsibility to do what I can to at least slow down those effects. And I'm not naive enough to assume that everyone else is going to help. But I am going to do my part and others are also doing theirs.

I survived Irma as I have done over a dozen others. Living in Florida I pay attention to these storms, and it does seem like they are getting worse and the truly devastating are coming more frequently - but that's not scientific - only my observation.

But if the vast majority of climatologists are correct, our habits are putting people like myself and millions of others at greater risk of extreme hardship. I for one don't want to contribute to that.

But that's my personal viewpoint, and everybody has a right to their own.

Notes


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I think it is a big disgrace to all of us that all news organizations, paper, radio, and TV, have turned into National Enquires. They will print anything that will make money for them whether it is fact, speculation, or rumor. They love riots, pro athletes not standing for the Nation Anthem, anything controversial that they can blow out of proportion. There is very little unbias journalism, if any, left. This is why I try to listen to or read both sides, left and right, and try to make up my mind.

YMMV


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Thanks for re-posting that news map Notes.

I was totally thinking of the map when the CNN discussion was had on the 15th & 16th above....




Steve

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Originally Posted By: Notes Norton
I don't remember the ice age thing. Perhaps I never paid attention feeling it was "the sky is falling" extremism. I never built a bomb shelter or joined the Foxfire group of radicals either.

And as a moderate (slightly left on social issues, slightly right on fiscal issues) I tend to ignore press from both extremes. I don't get my news anywhere more left than The Atlantic or any more right than The Hill. Mostly I stay in the mainstream section in the middle taking the "Shows Liberal" and "Shows Conservative" press with a grain of salt. NPR, Washington Post, BBC, New York Times, AP, and Reuters work best for me, and since I don't watch TV, NBC, CBS, CNN, and ABC are out.



And that means both Fox and MSNBC are too radical for me as they fall outside the center area of this diagram. According to Politifact, Fox gets it 100% true 8% of the time, MSNBC gets 9%. Both get from "Half True" to "Pants On Fire" well over 70% of the time. So neither is news but instead propaganda.

Back on topic of hurricanes and other weather disasters...

Since almost all of the peer-reviewed, published climatologists agree that humans are probably at fault for the warming, and at least extreme contributors to it, I figure they are correct. After all science gave us the Internet, space flight, smart phones, and computers. Sure they can be wrong, but it's the current best bet. Remember they told us smoking was bad while the merchants of doubt told us 9 out of 10 doctors recommend Lucky Strike cigarettes.

And yes I know we might be screwed anyway. But sooner or later I'm going to die, I'm definitely and sadly screwed out of living forever.

I don't take the attitude that I may as well smoke, hang glide, drive recklessly, pick fights in bars with people bigger than me, use power tools without eye/ear protection, eat nothing but junk food because it tastes so good, skin dive with sharks, and so on. Instead I take care of myself so I can live as long as I can in a healthful state. It just makes sense to me. There is plenty of fun I can have with minimal risk.

And if the Earth is screwed and going to die anyway, I feel the same way, that I should treat it right and keep it healthy as long as I can, even if my contribution is in the great scheme of things very small.

And no, I don't believe switching from a coal and oil based energy system to a renewable will ruin the economy anymore than any other changes have. Sure it will put some out of work, and others to work, but that happened with the printing press, automobile, cotton gin, computer, transistor, sewing machine, nuclear reactor, television, supermarkets, department stores, e-tailers, and thousands of other changes.

Solar, wind, battery, and other industries will prosper as coal (which is dying due to market forces anyway) fades away.

The so-called NeoCons rallied around the invasion of Iraq because there was a 1% chance they were developing nukes, but dismiss the 97% chance that we are causing climate change that could mean the end of human life in a future generation. I personally don't get it.

I read a few university studies that say if we all paint our roofs white, it will buy 100 years. That would 'create' plenty of jobs (my roof is white BTW).

And I believe in both the private sector and the government. But I don't believe either one is 100% the way to go. Some things work better via the government, like fire, police, and military, and other things work better in the private sector.

Of course we in the US have been giving billions of dollars in tax breaks and outright corporate welfare to the private sector, making large segments no longer private, but instead quasi-government, and that's not free market economics. Too many times Privatization is a disguise for Profitization.

So the fact remains that the odds are that human activities are at least contributing to the extreme weather conditions, melting permafrost/ice caps, sea level rising, warming oceans, and so on.

And it's undeniable that human pollution is adversely affecting our collective health. So I feel it's my responsibility to do what I can to at least slow down those effects. And I'm not naive enough to assume that everyone else is going to help. But I am going to do my part and others are also doing theirs.

I survived Irma as I have done over a dozen others. Living in Florida I pay attention to these storms, and it does seem like they are getting worse and the truly devastating are coming more frequently - but that's not scientific - only my observation.

But if the vast majority of climatologists are correct, our habits are putting people like myself and millions of others at greater risk of extreme hardship. I for one don't want to contribute to that.

But that's my personal viewpoint, and everybody has a right to their own.

Notes

Thanks for posting such a reasonable, non-partisan take on this issue! Some folks decide what they believe and then find sources to back them up. I, like you, prefer to deal in the reality and do the best we can with it.

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Notes, that is a very reasoned approach to life and I think our differences are fairly minimal. You're a bit more liberal than I am (maybe) but so what. Doesn't mean anybody's right or wrong, this stuff is so complex.

As for the 70's ice age thing check this out:

http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/05/23/120-years-of-climate-scares-70s-ice-age-scare/

You and I were both trying to make it in the music biz so I wasn't a big news hound either. Remember back in the day there was no internet, no cell phones, no nothing like that. We all got our information from the mainstream media like Walter Cronkite, newpapers and news mags like Time and Newsweek. It was either that or go to a university library and do your own research.

This site links way more newspapers talking about the coming ice age than I remember. At this point I remember seeing a Newsweek cover with some big glacier hovering over Manhattan or something like that plus some LA Times articles probably. Nobody had the distrust for the print media then that we have now.

At that time I became a huge fan of the Washington Post and the NY Times for breaking and then following Watergate. Definitely the high point of investigative journalism in my lifetime. Even though I was initially a Nixon supporter, that sure changed so when they also reported on global cooling and a possible ice age I thought there could be something to it.

Bob


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Mario, I agree that the news industry has gone more towards sensationalism, propaganda, and yellow journalism in the past few decades (especially since the fairness doctrine was nuked by the gov't).

Bob, I don't think we are that far apart either.

The Ice Age thing was fun - I guess I was too busy gigging to notice.

Scientists make their best predictions with the tools they have at hand, and change those predictions as time goes on and more facts present themselves.

And then there are the pseudo-scientists that publish no papers in peer-reviewed scientific journals but instead create hysteria to make money. And often mainstream newspapers get hold of them and reprint.

"If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper you are mis-informed." -- Mark Twain

And I don't think that I or anybody else has the right to say their opinion is the truth. We all have to interpret the fact from the truths, half-truths, and outright lies that are presented to us.

That's part of the reason why I stay moderate and middle-of-the-road. I figure both extremes have an agenda and every incentive to exaggerate and lie to promote that agenda so the odds are what they call news is worthless as fact and nothing but propaganda. Which is born out by Fox with 41% of their news completely false and MSNBC 26%. And they aren't even the fringes. Mostly false numbers are 19% and 20% respectively. That's a bad percentage for something called "news".

I have some Bernie friends and some Trump friends, and somehow in spite of our different opinions about politics, we get along just fine.

I think it's important to do so, as political news tends to divide the proverbial house.

Me? When it comes to election time, I just try to pick the lesser of the two evils and hope I'm right.

And since the consensus of peer-reviewed, published, climatologists think we are either causing or contributing to global warming, I think it's the best conclusion we have with the current information.

And even if they are wrong and I am minimizing my pollution, it certainly doesn't hurt to take care of the planet's health. At least that's the way I see it.

Back-on-topic. It looks like Maria is going to miss us, but PR and some of the Lesser Antilles are in for a rough time. I've been to Puerto Rico and found some wonderful people and some incredibly good music there. I've given a donation to the Red Cross knowing my little bit does nothing, but it's combined with the little bit of others.

I've been to Mexico City too, and met some great people, and my heart goes out to them as well. At one time I considered moving to Mexico, the US dollar goes a long way down there, and I really like the Mexican people. But between earthquakes and water shortages I changed my mind.

I know Mexico gets bad propaganda up here, but I've been from Alaska to Costa Rica, from the UK to China, and down to Africa, and what I've learned is that the vast majority of people in the world just want to live a peaceful life, bring up a family, and make the world a little better for their children. But then governments (overt and covert) and hate instigators do their best to spoil it for most of us.

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I've been working with an IRS auditor on a case and he's in San Juan Puerto Rico. We're professional adversaries but certainly not enemies. I represent the taxpayer and he represents the government.

When Irma was bearing down on San Juan I emailed to say I wish him and his family well and he emailed back thanking me and said they were closing the federal building for a couple of days. Then last week he said he was back for a half day but things were rough. Now I don't know what to think. San Juan just got slammed so hard it makes Irma look like a summer breeze because Irma wasn't a direct hit like Maria was. The news says power is out for 100% of the island and could be out for months. This is really bad for Puerto Rico. I doubt I'm going to hear from him any time soon and I hope he's ok.

Speaking of science, I saw earlier today that Maria exited the island right on top of Arecibo where the radio telescope is, I'm afraid it just got trashed maybe even ruined beyond repair.

Bob


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Yes, the loss in PR is greater than words can express.

Back in the 1980s I gigged on cruise ships for 3 years and San Juan was our long port. I met a lot of very nice people there, some musicians, some merchants, and I feel really badly for them.

Luis Angel taught me how to properly play Salsa music, and in return I gave him tips on North American music. Junior Laredo could play two keyboards, kick bass pedals, manipulate two drum machines at the same time, and sing so well he sounded like a Salsa/Merengue orquesta. I didn't have enough Spanish in my mouth nor did he have enough English for us to get very far in conversation, but we had a nice talk anyway. Ronnie, who worked a kiosk at the cruise port and was born in New York but didn't learn English until he moved to PR one day closed his shop for a while to drive us to a Salsa Festival in Bayamon where a dozen of the top Salsa and Merangue bands were playing, headlined by the Gilberto Santa Rosa Orquestra, and told us to call him if we couldn't get a ride back. Edwino took us to El Bosque Nacional El Yunque (rain forest) where we saw exotic vegetation, clouds forming as the wind blew through a mountain pass only to disappear at the other end of the pass, and when nightfall came, the chorus of the coqui frogs was overwhelming and delightful.

I suppose El Morro still stands, I hope the Pablo Cassals museum didn't lose it's collection, and I hope the coqui come back, but most of all, I hope the transitions of lives of the survivors is a quick and efficient as possible on their way back to normal.

As we know Irma set records on high wind speed duration making it the second most powerful storm ever, exceeded to only one typhoon in the Pacific. And the typhoons are generally a lot more powerful than the Atlantic storms because the Pacific is bigger and they have more time to grow.

It was also the most powerful Atlantic storm on record and the first time we had two storms of that magnitude in the Atlantic at the same time. Followed again by Maria and I've never seen a hurricane season like this one.

I know that isn't proof of climate change, but it certainly makes one think the scientists are right about it, since more powerful storms are one of the predictions they made as far back as the 1950s when they first started studying the long-term effects of this.

And now that we are one of only two nations that haven't agreed to the Paris agreement, we are no longer the leaders in this respect - and in the eyes of the rest of the world, we are no longer those "Nice Americans" but instead a scourge on the planet.

I saw an interview with a resident of one of those Pacific islands that are no longer habitable due to ocean rise, and when the reporter asked her who is to blame for this, her immediate response was "America".

Perhaps because I live in a hurricane zone and have survived over a dozen so far, or because I've seen the Indian River Lagoon rise, or because I've seen the over 90% decrease in wildlife in the Everglades National Park, I'm easier convinced than others about the human contribution to climate change. It's not a Chinese hoax or a liberal one either (even Rush Limbaugh fled the hurricane after trashing it as a liberal plot - they shouldn't have let him leave after that).

There is an overwhelming amount of good science that points to this, and yes, science can be wrong, but science is self correcting and moves towards better understanding of the world.

My clean up is almost done, the battery lanterns put away, the emergency radio recharged and put away, the storm awnings up, the storm panels down, most of the plant debris is in huge piles waiting for the socialist trash pickup to come and take them away (they're working as hard as they can), the extra generator gas slowly going into the car's gas tank, and for me, life is returning to normal. We even have non-cancelled gigs this weekend laugh

For those in the Antilles and Houston, it won't be so easy.

Please think about global warming, do what you can to limit your pollution, and don't vote for climate change deniers from any political party. And that's as political as I intend to get here.

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"San Juan just got slammed so hard it makes Irma look like a summer breeze because Irma wasn't a direct hit like Maria was." Say What? Irma's eye came directly over my house with winds clocked at the airport at 142 mph. It couldn't have been more direct and definitely not a summer breeze. I agree Puerto Rico is a dire situation and I have been there and wish them well. Power out for 11 days but just came on. Many still without and many more lost everything and are homeless. SW Florida is in shambles but in time we will recover. Tom

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Originally Posted By: tommyad
"San Juan just got slammed so hard it makes Irma look like a summer breeze because Irma wasn't a direct hit like Maria was." Say What? Irma's eye came directly over my house with winds clocked at the airport at 142 mph. It couldn't have been more direct and definitely not a summer breeze. I agree Puerto Rico is a dire situation and I have been there and wish them well. Power out for 11 days but just came on. Many still without and many more lost everything and are homeless. SW Florida is in shambles but in time we will recover. Tom


Amen brother. I’m not a denier but hair splitting re causality and severity doesn’t help somebody standing in line for a bottle of water and sleeping in a shelter. There are a zillion sites to debate climate issues but only one site to express best wishes to and hear from our forum members who have been through a very tough time. Per the original intent of this thread I’ll say it again. We are thinking about you and others on a daily basis and will help anyway possible. Hang in.

Janice and Bud

tommyad #430533 09/21/17 05:30 AM
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Originally Posted By: tommyad
"San Juan just got slammed so hard it makes Irma look like a summer breeze because Irma wasn't a direct hit like Maria was." Say What? Irma's eye came directly over my house with winds clocked at the airport at 142 mph.


Tommy, how can you misread something as crystal clear as what I wrote? Do you live in San Juan? I was talking about Puerto Rico not Florida. Damn.

Sorry man but this is just too much and is how so many things get completely misunderstood in our modern world. People simply glance at a written page, do not really read it or understand it, just glance at it while they're doing something else and then think they know what is written. If that's not it then how did you think I was talking about Florida?

Bob


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Originally Posted By: jazzmammal
Originally Posted By: tommyad
"San Juan just got slammed so hard it makes Irma look like a summer breeze because Irma wasn't a direct hit like Maria was." Say What? Irma's eye came directly over my house with winds clocked at the airport at 142 mph.


Tommy, how can you misread something as crystal clear as what I wrote? Do you live in San Juan? I was talking about Puerto Rico not Florida. Damn.

Sorry man but this is just too much and is how so many things get completely misunderstood in our modern world. People simply glance at a written page, do not really read it or understand it, just glance at it while they're doing something else and then think they know what is written. If that's not it then how did you think I was talking about Florida?

Bob
Bob, Thanks for the insights on reading comprehension. You are correct. I misunderstood. I may be experiencing post traumatic hurricane stress syndrome. My apologies sir, Tom

tommyad #430654 09/21/17 07:39 PM
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I understand and if you're having a rough time I apologize. I was a little edgy this morning myself but nothing like getting hit by a hurricane...

Bob


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