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#429850 - 09/15/17 07:22 AM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Notes Norton]
Notes Norton Offline
Veteran

Registered: 07/06/00
Posts: 4222
Loc: Fort Pierce, Florida, U.S.A.
Power came back on yesterday. Ah, life is almost back to normal. Still some clean up to do, put away storm panels, service the generator, help neighbors who fled the storm clean up theirs, and so on. But we have lights, refrigerator, and Internet. Life is good.

Yes Bob, the biggest problem is with the tropical rain forests. But we all can help with a tree or two,

And I respectfully disagree. I don't think the US is doing fine. I've seen hundreds of miles of trees bulldozed over in Florida and elsewhere for housing developments that replaced the trees with lawns.

That's a lot of CO2 not getting converted to O2.

I'm a believer that if a lot of people, each does a little, the end result can be huge.

When I bought my house, which used to be in a mixed scrub-oak, sand pine, sabal palm, and palmetto forest there wasn't a tree on it. The previous owner didn't like the leaves falling.

There are remnants of the forest, and it was thick.

Now I have over a dozen live oaks, 11 sabal palms, 4 royal poincianas, 3 gumbo limbos, one neem, a few sea grapes, and one ficus that the birds planted. And a few carrotwoods have also volunteered. 27 years later, I'm back in a 1/2 acre forest.

My yard is cooler and the shade is welcome. It no longer needs to be watered and fertilized, and I have ferns and other ground cover plants to minimize what I have to mow.

I live near the Indian River Lagoon on the East coast of Florida. A former Riverkeeper came to my house to borrow a PA amp, and he said my yard was perfect for the health of the lagoon and the fish that spawn in it (and I like to eat fish).

The way I figure it is if >97% of peer-reviewed, published, climate scientists agree, and a few dissenters have been found taking million dollar bribes from oil and coal companies, that there is at least a 97% chance that humans are either causing or accelerating the global warming. So I'll go with that. If I erred, I've erred on the side of caution, and if I'm right, my children and grandchildren will know I've done what I can.

The seas have risen so much around here that Miami Beach regularly floods at high tide. Even the Republican Mayor who was a climate denier has turned around. Miami is consulting with people from The Netherlands about how to keep the water out.

Las Olas area of Ft. Lauderdale (The Venice Of America) suffers the same fate. I grew up there, and never-ever saw the tide overflow the banks until the late 1990s. Now it covers Las Olas Blvd frequently.

Salt water intrusion has happened up to 6 miles inland to what were fresh water wells.

Of course less than 3% of peer reviewed climate scientists say this is natural, but I choose to go with the over 97%.

I know there are a lot of fake news exaggerations on both side of the coin, and they often look very convincing and have credible sounding names. (They did the same thing with tobacco smoke.) But if you look at the peer reviewed scientific journals, the vast majority of climatologists think there is no question about the human contribution global warming.

And although it's very difficult to say, one super-storm Sandy, or Irma, or Katrina is the cause of climate change, looking at the total weather extremes seem to fit the predictions that the climatologists as far back as the 1950s predicted.

Add the sea level rise, the Arctic melting, the glaciers receding, and the permafrost melting, I think we need to all do something.

And yes, China is a big polluter, but they are also installing Solar and Wind at a pace that dwarfs our efforts. When I was there, they were damming the Yangtze river, relocating millions of people, moving historic structures, and the people I talked with all seemed to agree that the cost was severe, but worth it to get better air (and the air in China was bad). So if it is a Chinese Hoax, they are spending zillions of dollars on that hoax. Rush Limbaugh who said Irma was a liberal climate change hoax, he evacuated his Florida home.

Still, it's impossible to prove with 100% accuracy, and the "Merchants Of Doubt" hired by the oil and coal companies capitalize on that fact. So we all choose to believe who we want to believe.

So I will continue to go with the 97% of peer-reviewed climatologists. I hope my children and grandchildren and all the others in those generation have a better world for our efforts. And if we are wrong, we haven't hurt anything. If the "other side" is wrong, the next generations will suffer.

I guess I'm still not over peace, love, and all that hippie philosophy.

Notes
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#429856 - 09/15/17 08:59 AM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Notes Norton]
jazzmammal Offline
Veteran

Registered: 06/08/05
Posts: 6371
Loc: Redondo Beach, Ca.
Your property sounds beautiful, who doesn't like all that greenery? I sure do, I would love to see it.

All I like to do when this subject comes up is point out the inconsistencies in this. I certainly don't deny what's happening. And of course I agree a lot of it is human caused too. I've seen several shows about the flooding in Miami and what they're trying to about it on a local level. On a planetary level though you can't believe squat. When it comes to China for example, you do understand that place is run by a pure dictatorship right? Red Chinese Communists, the People's Liberation Army and all that? Tianamen Square?

Imho, you can't believe a word they say, all their stats are whatever they want them to be and nobody can dissent or they disappear. As far as China's so called shift to being climate good guys:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/01/climate/china-energy-companies-coal-plants-climate-change.html

This is all about the third world as I mentioned earlier. People in the third world are now somewhat connected via the internet. They know full well how we and the other western countries live and since they're human beings just like everybody else, they want that for themselves. Who wouldn't?

That level of development requires power and lots of it which requires money and lots of that too. Of course pretty much all of those countries are so corrupt it's almost inconceivable to us. Just take one, Mexico. It's well known Mexico is right up there as one of the top two or three most corrupt countries in the world.

How can you believe anything these countries say? They can sign all the accords they want, so what? My friend has several time shares at Mexican resorts and they're beautiful, fun places to visit and all that but we like to leave the resorts and take a bus into town. That's where you see where they're really at and it's pretty bad. Heavy traffic and none of those vehicles have their pollution controls hooked up. Mexico City is right up there with Beijing for air quality. Mexico has as many natural resources as we do here but it's all controlled by the original families who got land grants from the Spanish king centuries ago.

Mexico is just one example, India, Asia, S. America and all the other crap holes around the world are the same. The people are fine, folks are folks, it's their governments. My only point is not that there isn't a problem, it's what can the US as a country do about it? To me we can all buy Priuses and Teslas which I think are great btw, plant all the trees we possibly can, and it will make little difference. Some maybe but nowhere near enough and to do the really radical overhaul using increasingly tougher regulations on industry and individuals will basically bankrupt our economy and to what end? In the final analysis it's not going to change the climate one tiny bit without all these third world countries doing the same and good luck with that. India has dead bodies floating down their rivers, and cows are sacred, can't be eaten or touched, how good do you think their air quality is? I just remembered something that looks like a fun place to visit, shipbreaking. Check this out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gu7yvFD4oc

What kind of EPA type regs do they have here? Zero. What kind of safety regs for the workers? Zero. How do they live? Barely. How much pollution is being generated here? Who knows, what do you think?

Ex hippies wearing rose colored glasses who think they are actually making a difference in the face of this? C'mon. You can find the same secret vids taken at places in China that are apart from the modern showcase factories in the development zones we all see on the news. Oh no, go ahead and read and see pics of what's really going on in China. Same crap, different flavor.

That's all I'm saying.

Bob
_________________________
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#429874 - 09/15/17 11:12 AM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Notes Norton]
sslechta Offline
Expert

Registered: 12/27/13
Posts: 987
Loc: St. Louis, MO. USA
What great timing..... CNN article just released today.

Climate change made Harvey and Irma worse
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BIAB/RB 2018, Pro Tools 12.8, Korg N5, Proteus F/X, JBL LSR 4328 Powered Monitors, AKG/Shure Mics.
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#429899 - 09/15/17 03:10 PM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: sslechta]
Larry Kehl Offline
Expert

Registered: 06/04/00
Posts: 1972
Loc: New Mexico
Hmmmmm (as I said earlier "tiresome" becasue this is no longer a thread about checking on forum members and wishing them well, offering help and moral support. And it is definitely not "music" related.

Again ALL AFFECTED forum members: I WISH YOU WELL and God speed (oops did I bring in the deity?)

but as long as we are going there:

So let’s hear from some actual scientists (yes, there is one link below who is not a scientist but puts together a coherent counterpoint to one - as long as you actually listen to it). Being a "scientist" a troublesome mathematician, (no I don't play one on TV) who worked almost daily (for decades) with other mathematicians, physicists, statisticians, and "experimental'ists" - you know the kind of folks who are all from the “Missouri state of science” (aka "SHOW ME"). The kind of nose-to-the-grindstone professionals that would say something like:

"Give me your data (ALL THE DATA), method and other details of data collection (and how data verification was performed), data not included (and why, but give it to me anyway), models, model assumptions, equations, equation and model simplification(s) for things like 2nd, 3rd, 4th, ..nth order effects and nth order interactions. Considerations that had to be excluded or "assumed" because computationally unknown, unknowable, un-computable [even the best fluid dynamic models - have some assumed parameters, nth order partial differentials, and other aspects because there is no way to symbolize them, estimate their initial conditions, etc.]

How the models and equations were verified and validated plus the reports and studies SHOWING the verification and validation. How well did said models and equations work on interpolation of existing data, was there any re-sampling,...? even with perfect fits of data (and correlations of rho approaching 1/-1 doesn’t mean the equation or model can EXTRAPOLATE (i.e., predict) accurately, or even well, even one n-tuple point beyond the domain.

Plus a long list of OTHER pertinent FACTS - then finally tell me your testing hypotheses, statistical test methods and attributes (e.g., 1-beta: aka power of the statistical design, alpha, etc.), and finally the outcomes.

Now I will go out and re-exam this area myself, once I have my own understanding of it, then let's see if I, and OTHERS, can repeat your tests and analyses and after performing independent analyses get the same results. Maybe I'll do independent data collection, data verification, model verification, different types of numerical and statistical analyses and see IF I still get these results.

In actual (hard) science there is objective, constant, consistent, unchanging truth: there is no measurable criteria with the quality called: "consensus." Yes, a group of experts can (and we all of us almost always do) hold a consensus of opinion, or a consensus of the general effect of X on A - but it is never considered "proof" of X on A. Proof stands separate and apart and is repeatable and verifiable.

Even if consensus were an acceptable scientific principal asking the very group of "experts" whose funding, livelihood, and (peer) reputation depends mainly, if not SOLELY, on only one kind and direction for their studies and analyses that group is NOT the group to verify said studies and outcomes.

That's akin to

FBI: "Hey, mafia are you mugs still running numbers, bribing officials, corrupting unions...?"
Mafia: "Nah, the consensus of us mafioso members is we ain't never done nutin' like 'dat"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXxHfb66ZgM&t=981s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiKfWdXXfIs&t=231s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOGt3OzTXBs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrQxidb4xSQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzyARQZ5vkc

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/08/thanks-to-the-ipcc-the-public-doesnt-know-water-vapor-is-most-important-greenhouse-gas/

https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.html

and on and on and on.......


OUT HERE

Larry
_________________________
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#429901 - 09/15/17 03:30 PM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Notes Norton]
Matcham Offline
Apprentice

Registered: 07/05/16
Posts: 220
Loc: Byron Bay, NSW, Australia
Bob the figures I mentioned earlier concerning the States' contribution to global CO2 emissions don't come from China or some other 'crappy third world country'. They come from a US government agency using their own data. Unless you believe the US government is as corrupt as all the other governments you casually throw around by name (possible - you seem to be on the extreme end of scepticism), then you might have to face the possibility that the US is part of the problem of global warming, and therefore needs to be part of the solution. And sorry, the schoolroom excuse "but others are doing it too" is not going to make the world a better place.

Larry, are you being ironic? Curious you should enter a discussion that you have repeatedly declared 'tiresome'.
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#429932 - 09/16/17 12:27 AM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Matcham]
Pipeline Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/05/15
Posts: 2124
"I could rip apart your premise point by point"

I would not take on JM he seems like a Master Debater.

A bit of CO2 won't hurt anybody, see the ad


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCMzjJjuxQI

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#429944 - 09/16/17 05:45 AM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Notes Norton]
Notes Norton Offline
Veteran

Registered: 07/06/00
Posts: 4222
Loc: Fort Pierce, Florida, U.S.A.
Bob, I've been to China and talked to the citizens. They are fed up with the dirty air, and think the sacrifices are worth it. I saw them moving ancient monuments out of the Yangtze valley so when it floods they won't lose their heritage. I saw the new apartment buildings being built to replace the ones that will be submerged when the river rose. And I saw the construction of the dam.

Yes they have a corrupt communist government, and well, we have a corrupt capitalist/"corporationalist" government. While I believe capitalist is superior to communist, I'm not blind to the flaws in our system.

I don't think it does any good to point fingers at others, we can't change them. But we can change ourselves and instead of being the only civilized country out of the Paris agreement (for one example) we could be leading the world by embracing solar and wind, painting our roofs white, planting trees, getting rid of the gas guzzlers, eliminating or greatly reducing our dependence on Air Conditioning, and doing other things to set an example, instead of fighting it for the profits of the oil and coal companies.

I've been in Florida since 1957 and through the years I've seen the waters rise, and I've seen the storms break records after record.

When I was a child, upper 80s in my home town made front page news. Now 90s are common.

I resolve to do what I can both in my yard and at the ballot box to help myself and others survive these newer, seeming more powerful storms. (back on topic).

And I feel if enough of us do this, instead of pointing fingers, we can make a difference. And I think the US should be the leaders, not the followers.

Notes


Edited by Notes Norton (09/16/17 06:06 AM)
_________________________
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100% MIDI Super-Styles recorded by live, pro, studio musicians for a live groove
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#429956 - 09/16/17 10:46 AM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Notes Norton]
JohnJohnJohn Offline
Veteran

Registered: 06/25/12
Posts: 2059
Originally Posted By: Notes Norton
I think the US should be the leaders, not the followers.

+1

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#429967 - 09/16/17 02:38 PM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: sslechta]
eddie1261 Offline
Veteran

Registered: 04/08/11
Posts: 3894
Loc: Cleveland, Ohio
Note that CNN ran that. The very liberal "Blame Trump for everything since Lincoln got shot" media.

Trump opted out of the climate nonsense what, June? And within 90 days something HE did was responsible for hurricanes? To look at it from the other side, climate change happened during the 8 years of the liberal democrat president too. So is Obama 8 times as liable?

Everybody needs to turn the liberal news off. They do not deal in fact. They deal in bias and opinion skewed against the guy they don't like. They have never explained why, if Trump is the anti-Christ as they report, Hilary couldn't beat him.

Climate change has been in the mix for a century, since industry started polluting. It didn't just start to happen in 2017.


Edited by eddie1261 (09/16/17 02:41 PM)
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#429985 - 09/16/17 03:43 PM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Notes Norton]
beatmaster Offline
Apprentice

Registered: 05/16/17
Posts: 104
Originally Posted By: Notes Norton

I think the US should be the leaders, not the followers



Big plus one .

The U.S.A. Always were the leaders .

I stay in Great Britain and the word here used to be U.S.A. Sneezes Then Britain gets a cold.

There always will be an influential country .

God Bless
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#429987 - 09/16/17 04:16 PM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricanes, Climate Change and Politics :) [Re: beatmaster]
Pipeline Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/05/15
Posts: 2124
Originally Posted By: Notes Norton
I think the US should be the leaders, not the followers.

+1

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#430049 - 09/17/17 06:58 AM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Janice & Bud]
Sundance Offline
Veteran

Registered: 05/30/08
Posts: 3959
Originally Posted By: Janice & Bud
It's been a week. Part of this forum family are still w/o power, w/o access to gas, and knowing that the next rain can again bring flooding to their damaged homes. Mega positive thoughts to them during a prolonged recovery and may making music return for them as soon as possible.

J&B



Amen to that!
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My videos
My songs


Laugh often and love much.




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#430067 - 09/17/17 10:32 AM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Matcham]
jazzmammal Offline
Veteran

Registered: 06/08/05
Posts: 6371
Loc: Redondo Beach, Ca.
Originally Posted By: Matcham
Bob the figures I mentioned earlier concerning the States' contribution to global CO2 emissions don't come from China or some other 'crappy third world country'. They come from a US government agency using their own data. Unless you believe the US government is as corrupt as all the other governments you casually throw around by name (possible - you seem to be on the extreme end of scepticism), then you might have to face the possibility that the US is part of the problem of global warming, and therefore needs to be part of the solution. And sorry, the schoolroom excuse "but others are doing it too" is not going to make the world a better place.

Larry, are you being ironic? Curious you should enter a discussion that you have repeatedly declared 'tiresome'.


Larry didn't express himself very elegantly but his point as I read it is very valid. To quote a famous person "There are lies, damn lies and statistics." It's all about the methodology used, the details of the research etc.

Here's something I just found that supports what I've written:

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-America-stacks-up-greenhouse-gas-emissions-180963560/

Note China emits TWICE what the US does because this is using CO2 equivalents, not just CO2 alone. See the quote again. Then add up India, Brazil and Russia and what do you get? About the same as China. Now you're at 21.25 vs 6.34. Basically a bit over 3 to 1 concerning emissions of those countries and the US. This has been my basic point all along. All of those countries are dictatorships or in the case of Brazil corrupt on a scale comparable to Mexico. I basically don't believe what kind of propaganda they put out. Oh yes, we're doing this and we're going to do that. Maybe.

Having said that am NOT a denier. There certainly seems to be a long term problem. The question is what can we do about it? That's where I'm a skeptic. The following is where the idea comes from that if the US completely eliminated 100% of emissions the net result in global temps would be undetectable:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmichaels/2013/07/25/reduce-u-s-carbon-emissions-to-zero-and-the-temperature-decrease-by-2100-will-be-undetectable/#2c06d5753909

Not being any kind of expert in this field I try to keep an open mind but I do read a lot. My general feeling is I don't trust dictatorships and corrupt governments. The UN in general is very much anti American as well as anti Semitic for that matter. Putting the worst human rights violators on the UN Human Rights Commission and stuff like that.

The corruption at the UN is legendary so why would I put much stock in what they say or do? Basically I don't. There's the old joke about a broken clock being correct twice a day. Sure, the most corrupt organizations can be correct once in a while but since they have zero credibility with me, I basically ignore what the UN says.

The good news is the private sector ie the free market, is making great strides in reducing these emissions. It's basic economics. Build something that people want and be able to sell it at a profit and everybody's happy. The electric car and hybrid industries seem to be doing well and so is alternative energy sources. Far from being any kind of Luddite, I'm a high tech supporter and love this stuff.

Bob

_________________________
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#430069 - 09/17/17 10:55 AM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: Notes Norton]
Janice & Bud Offline
Veteran

Registered: 12/05/11
Posts: 5074
Loc: GA USA
It's been a week. Part of this forum family are still w/o power, w/o access to gas, and knowing that the next rain can again bring flooding to their damaged homes. Mega positive thoughts to them during a prolonged recovery and may making music return for them as soon as possible.

J&B

PS. And another one is following a similar path. Here's hoping for a northward that spares everybody who was previously hit.
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#430092 - 09/17/17 02:25 PM [Off-Topic] Re: Hurricane Irma [Re: jazzmammal]
eddie1261 Offline
Veteran

Registered: 04/08/11
Posts: 3894
Loc: Cleveland, Ohio
Remember Bob that the population of China is 1,340,000,000. The population of the USA is 324,000,000. About 1/3 the population of China. Wouldn't logic say that 3 times as many people emit 3 times the amount of hydrocarbons?

You are spot on though. Statistics can never lie. Statistics are not conditional. They are cold, factual and impersonal with no "but" attached. So, the fact that China has 3 times as many people may explain WHY they emit 3 times as much, but it's the 3 times more that damages the ozone.

I had the "pleasure" of watching the hippies protest a nuclear plant when it was being built 60 miles east of Cleveland. A reporter asked one of them "In a situation where nuclear power was the only option, would you choose nuclear power or no power?" and that politician tried to duck by saying "There will always be options." The reporter replied "That wasn't my question. My question was IF there were no options", and the politician walked away from the interview. People with an agenda seem to disregard statistics and look for scapegoats.
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Xtra Styles PAKs - Order Now... Sale Ends January 15th!

Hurry... all of our Xtra Styles PAKs on SALE, but only until January 15th! Purchase any Xtra Styles PAK (1 - 4) for just $29 each! (reg. $49) http://www.pgmusic.com/xtrastyles.php?os=mac

The recently released Xtra Styles PAK 4 has over 150 new RealStyles for Rock-Pop, Jazz, Country, and 'Folk and Beyond' styles, which work with the RealTracks included in any Band-in-a-Box® version 2017 or higher UltraPAK/UltraPlusPAK, EverythingPAK, or Audiophile Edition!

Listen to all the demos of these new Xtra Styles here, or check out this video: www.pgmusic.com/?vid=Zl_wr47d2V0

It's the LAST WEEKEND of our Band-in-a-Box® 2018 for Windows Special!

Our Band-in-a-Box® 2018 for Windows special ends on January 15th... it's your last weekend to order with some amazing upgrade pricing, Bonus PAKs, discounted Xtra Styles PAKs, and Video RealTracks bundles!

Band-in-a-Box® 2018 for Windows purchase options: http://www.pgmusic.com/bbwin.packages.htm
(learn more about the new features: http://www.pgmusic.com/bbwin.new.htm)

Bonus PAKs information: http://www.pgmusic.com/bbwin.bonuspaks_2018.htm

Video RealTracks offers: http://www.pgmusic.com/bbwin.videorealtracks.htm

Xtra Styles PAKs special pricing: http://www.pgmusic.com/xtrastyles.php?os=win

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