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Second is a new report out of S. Korea. They were hit hard a month ago but had millions of testing kits. Their new stats show exactly what several doctors have been predicting over the last few weeks and that is the 3-4% death rate is way skewed because of not enough test kits to really get a handle on how many already have had it and recovered. We know the exact number of fatalities but don't know the other number. S. Korea now says the death rate is about .5% which makes a lot more sense.
Mortality rates can only be skewed downward, not upward by a lack of testing. Case fatality rates on the other hand (which is what you are apparently citing) are far more dependent on the level of testing and I would argue that it is impossible to ever precisely know the case fatality rate for a disease. Case fatality rate is something that we use as a planning tool to respond to pandemics and has always been calculated using some very complex mathematical models because you will never know the number of undiagnosed cases there are for any disease. One of the criticisms that we get is that the models have been deliberately designed to avoid underestimating case fatality ratios so that we are not under prepared. Because of that you are always going to be able to criticize the estimated ratio as too high.
Keith
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Of course Keith. This is merely an observation as reported by health professionals. I've been thinking more about this while I was cooking and eating dinner. Try this out and I'm using the word "you" in the general sense.
Most of us here have been to large sporting events, music festivals and the like with very large groups of people at least a few times. Take the Miami Dolphins stadium for example, capacity just over 65,000. I once saw a Rams game in Anaheim, roughly same number of fans. Say they had a promotional drawing for a brand new $50,000 pick up truck. One person out of 65,000 won that truck. Would anybody really be upset they didn't win? Of course not, you're sitting there surrounded by this huge sea of people and the odds are 65,000 to 1.
The population of the US is about 331 million. 65,000 divided into that is just under 5,100. Just for round numbers say 5,000. That means if the confirmed number of cases in the US reaches 5,000 that equals one person in that stadium. We'll almost certainly get to 5,000. Take it up by 10. 50,000 cases, ten people in the stadium. OK, that's not too farfetched either. If those ten won the truck again would you really be upset thinking you should have won, you must of been cheated or something? Again, of course not. 6,500 to 1 is still very long odds. They're not that bad in Vegas.
Take it up by a factor of 10 again. Now we're talking a half million confirmed cases in the US, 500,000 people. That's still only 100 people in that stadium. Does taking it from 10 to 100 out of 65,000 really upset you that much? You're still sitting in an absolute ocean of people everywhere. A massive parking lot, probably takes you a good half hour just to get out of the lot when the game is over. Surrounded by thousands and thousands of people in their cars. See my point?
Now a factor of 100 equals one in 650. When's the last time you went to a grocery store, even a huge one like a Walmart and 650 people were there? Lets say that one was there and he/she was infected. What would it take for you to get it? Beat odds of 1 in 650. There are tons of meds that people take every day because they need it where the documentation says the chance of dying from that med is around that number. I know I would take those odds if I had some bad affliction.
How many times have we all gone shopping and there's only 10-20 people there and two cashiers? What does it take to catch the virus from that one in whatever number of people at the store? First, very close contact, they basically have cough or sneeze right on you. Will you allow yourself to be that close to a total stranger in this envoronment? Probably not but sometimes it can't be helped. The other way is they left the virus on a door handle to the mens room or on a cart, a store shelf or even a can of coffee they touched but then put back. We all know how to handle that situation now.
Add all this up and is this something to really get upset about to be so worried you're paralyzed with fear?
Half a million cases just to get to 1 in 650 and even if you came fairly close to that one the chances of catching it from them are still quite low.
These are exceedingly rough numbers, you could throw out the population who are old enough or infirm they never go out shopping but other than that you would count everybody else including newborns because the kid could have it and they do the mom probably has it too. But still, now I'm assuming a total number of cases at a half million and fell free to take the odds down to 1 in 500. Still long odds. Will we get there? Who knows but even if we do consider these numbers.
Now if it goes up another factor of 10 to 5,000,000 cases and the fatality rate gets to 1 or 2 percent or 50,000 to 100,000 deaths. OK, time to hide in your well stocked, end of the world, zombie apocalypse/nuclear war bunker until there's a proven vaccine.
Bob
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Of course Keith. This is merely an observation as reported by health professionals.
Bob I was just pointing out that the source of this information didn’t know the difference between a mortality rate and a fatality ratio which have two different uses in Epidemiology. As far as the rest, the worst case scenario is that 150 million people get infected. If we accept .5 as a “more reasonable” fatality ratio as you suggest, then 750,000 people die. News on estimates The numbers that are most concerning Triage measures in Italy
Keith
2024 Audiophile Windows 11 AMD RYZEN THREADRIPPER 3960X 4.5GHZ 128 GB RAM 2 Nvidia RTX 3090s, Vegas,Acid,SoundForge,Izotope Production,Melodyne Studio,Cakewalk,Raven Mti
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Nobody is saying the virus doesn't exist in the southern hemisphere, of course it does. It's just the warmer summer climate tends to suppress it somewhat or at least that's a supposition right now. It is true there are few stories about this from South America for example. Sort of like how it's suppressing the dengue virus they're dealing with? The first case in Latin America wasn't reported until February 26. So it seems a bit premature to assume anything about how it behaves. Test kits have been a problem for sure but yesterday they're saying there are over a million available now and 5 million basically in transit and available in the next few days and ramping up from there. I'm not sure who "they" are, but we're not seeing test kits around here. Despite assurances to the contrary, people who need testing simply can't get it. Ironically, one of the most high-profile American couples with the virus - Tom Hanks and his wife - wouldn't have been able to be tested if they hadn't been in Australia. And even if the US had millions of kits available, we simply haven't got the infrastructure in place to process those many kits. We will have a handle on this fairly soon I think and my guess is the overall death rate will start coming way down. If by "have a handle on this" you mean we could contain this outbreak in the US, we're well past the containment stage. That leaves mitigation, with a goal of reducing the rate at which the virus spreads. Given an exponential growth rate and a population with no natural immunity, I'm not sure how well that's going to go, but there aren't a lot of options at this point. As for the death rate, you're right - the current estimate based on the numbers from South Korea is around 1%. But that's not an even spread, and for people above 60 years in age, it's particularly brutal. Keep this in perspective. It's foolish to simply ignore this but equally foolish to suddenly feel we're all under a death sentence. Am I under a death sentence from this virus? Statistically, I'm not. As for perspective, with exponential growth in a population with no immunity, 1% death rate could be a really, really big number. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says that complacency could lead to the death of "many, many millions". I'm hoping you're right and I'm wrong, but until we know better, let's neither panic, nor encourage complacency.
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Yeah, I'm gonna err on the side of safety! Cut way back on my trips to public places. Wash my hands frequently. Wipe down surfaces I must touch with strong wipes. Etc.
And remember this is not just being cautious to protect yourself since "I am healthy"! It is also so that you don't spread the virus to people who are not as healthy as you. This whole BS approach of "don't worry, everything will be fine" gets people killed!
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The scariest part of the whole virus event? Living in an area where the hospitals have some of the lowest ratings in the country.
If you go to the hospital, believe the nurses not the doctors. The doctors were probably the goats of their graduating class.
...Deb
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It's good to see that our "very stable genius", (his words, not mine), finally realized this pandemic wasn't something he could BS his way through. It would have been even nicer if he hadn't downplayed it earlier and wasted weeks, if not months calling it fake news and a Democratic plot.
As always, he placed the blame on others for the delays and failure to respond to a health crisis. We can always count on him to do that. As he said this afternoon, "No, I don't take responsibility at all".
Of course you don't, Mr. President.
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The realities of isolation have begin to set in.
I "assume" my wife and I don't have the virus.
The inability to be tested limits what I can do. The guy and his wife who live down the street have to go to work. They have no other option. They have three small children all school age. The schools have been closed. If I could test the kids and me and my wife I would keep the kids until this is over. This testing thing is Fk up!!!
My fishing buddy who lives sixty miles away called last night and told me to stay home. He said he would bring me anything I need and drop in in the drive way.There a few really good people left in the world!!
I am about 99.99% sure my house and surroundings are virus free.
What do I do with stuff delivered by UPS or anyone else? Put on my hazmat suite an disinfect it before I take it inside?
We have a old house that is sort of in the country so some of my chickens come to the back porch. They are the only friends I get to touch. Isolation is very unnatural.
I read there 10 nursing homes in Washington State that have Corona virus.God help you if you have to depend on the government for anything.
New location, new environment, new music coming soon
Seize the moo-ment
If you feel like you’ve herd all these cow puns before, you probably have deja-moo
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quoting Planobilly: "The inability to be tested limits what I can do. The guy and his wife who live down the street have to go to work. They have no other option. They have three small children all school age. The schools have been closed. If I could test the kids and me and my wife I would keep the kids until this is over. This testing thing is Fk up!!!" Fortunately, a Chinese billionaire pledged to send 500,000 test kits to the US around noon today. https://www.sfgate.com/cnet/article/Alibaba-co-founder-Jack-Ma-to-donate-500-000-15129020.phpAround 3:30PM this afternoon, Trump bragged that we would have 500,000 test kits available next week, yet he never mentioned Jack Ma, the guy who's giving the test kits to us.
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Had a bit of a chuckle. Here in Oz we had a rush on toilet paper (and several other items) due to panic buying. This got to the stage where fights occurred in the aisles of supermarkets. The supermarkets limited the number of toilet rolls per person which created complaints.
Here we are not a week later and the latest complaint is the supermarkets are refusing refunds on toilet paper (and several other items purchased in panic buying.) as having overestimated requirements in panic buying is not a valid reason for a refund. (Tickled my fancy this).
Keep well all
Tony Three days ago I jested about your TP post. Then I went to the local grocery store last night. My mission; pick up some chicken breasts for the wife's recipe. I failed the mission. Meat section was totally cleaned out except for a commercial size bag of drumsticks. No beef or pork to be seen at all. Many other aisles were empty too. Surreal. /we just made something else for dinner, I'll not participate in the initial panic //you're welcome
Make your sound your own!
.. I do not work here, but the benefits are still awesome
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Billie said: What do I do with stuff delivered by UPS or anyone else? Put on my hazmat suite an disinfect it before I take it inside? UPS, FedEx, and the US Postal Service appear to functioning unmolested. It seems to be the means that would succeed in intentionally propagating the virus. Imagine the chaos it would cause if those services were to be shut down.
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I've now lost 3 gigs due to COVID. A fourth one is still undecided.
2 one-nighters my market pay about what a 5 night gig in a club pays. So I've lost a lot of this month's income.
When you gig for a living, you don't get paid when you are cancelled. Under the circumstances I offered to either return their deposit or let it float for the next time they book us.
There are a lot of Canadians that we play for. Last night we played at an RV resort that about 600 Canadian RVs park for the winter. Almost all have gone back to Canada.
I talked to a few that are left. They bought US health insurance for their 6 months here in Florida, but they are going back home anyway because they say the health system in Canada is much better than that of the US. (I've heard this many times by Canadians).
I'm sorry to see them go, but I understand.
Insights and incites by Notes
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I looked up some numbers this morning, just out of curiosity. This is NOT intended to make light of or diminish the seriousness of Covid 19, but simply to provide perspective....so don't blow me up.
Currently, as of the moment I'm posting this, there are just over 150,000 confirmed C-19 cases globally, in 149 countries, and 5,617 have died. In comparison, the 2019/2020 seasonal flu, in the U.S. alone, has had over 26 million cases, 14,000 deaths, and 250,000 hospitalized. Again, that's globally vs. U.S. numbers alone.
The 2009 H1N1 virus, in comparison, led to over 12,000 deaths in the U.S. - the global estimates are varied, somewhere between 150,000-580,000 deaths (I pulled these #'s from the CDC).
This is clearly a very serious virus, but IMO it doesn't warrant the panic that has ensued. Wash your hands, be smart and stay safe.
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Couple of hundred case in the UIK, Nothing this far north as of yet. Maybe our dreaded midge will kill the bugger before it gets us
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Agree with that Roger, the media have gone completely bonkers over this and are probably helping to give people heart attacks worrying over it
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Oh it's a big deal Bob, that's for sure, but the media have made people panic buy worldwide and they should be held accountable
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Maybe you should go back and carefully re-read my initial post. You know....the part where I said "This is NOT intended to make light of or diminish the seriousness of Covid 19...."
or maybe when I said "This is clearly a very serious virus".
Where, in that, did you possibly presume that I was "acting like it's no big deal"
Reading comprehension....it's a thing.
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Roger,
My reading comprehension is fine, thank you.
But even mentioning "media hype" is playing into the administrations constant attempts at trying to get the American public to distrust the media.
I'll choose the media over a self serving politician with a rampant history of lying to the public every time.
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