Originally Posted By: jazzmammal

Second is a new report out of S. Korea. They were hit hard a month ago but had millions of testing kits. Their new stats show exactly what several doctors have been predicting over the last few weeks and that is the 3-4% death rate is way skewed because of not enough test kits to really get a handle on how many already have had it and recovered. We know the exact number of fatalities but don't know the other number. S. Korea now says the death rate is about .5% which makes a lot more sense.


Mortality rates can only be skewed downward, not upward by a lack of testing. Case fatality rates on the other hand (which is what you are apparently citing) are far more dependent on the level of testing and I would argue that it is impossible to ever precisely know the case fatality rate for a disease. Case fatality rate is something that we use as a planning tool to respond to pandemics and has always been calculated using some very complex mathematical models because you will never know the number of undiagnosed cases there are for any disease. One of the criticisms that we get is that the models have been deliberately designed to avoid underestimating case fatality ratios so that we are not under prepared. Because of that you are always going to be able to criticize the estimated ratio as too high.

Keith
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