Originally Posted By: jazzmammal
Nobody is saying the virus doesn't exist in the southern hemisphere, of course it does. It's just the warmer summer climate tends to suppress it somewhat or at least that's a supposition right now. It is true there are few stories about this from South America for example.

Sort of like how it's suppressing the dengue virus they're dealing with?

The first case in Latin America wasn't reported until February 26. So it seems a bit premature to assume anything about how it behaves.

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Test kits have been a problem for sure but yesterday they're saying there are over a million available now and 5 million basically in transit and available in the next few days and ramping up from there.

I'm not sure who "they" are, but we're not seeing test kits around here. Despite assurances to the contrary, people who need testing simply can't get it.

Ironically, one of the most high-profile American couples with the virus - Tom Hanks and his wife - wouldn't have been able to be tested if they hadn't been in Australia.

And even if the US had millions of kits available, we simply haven't got the infrastructure in place to process those many kits.


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We will have a handle on this fairly soon I think and my guess is the overall death rate will start coming way down.

If by "have a handle on this" you mean we could contain this outbreak in the US, we're well past the containment stage.

That leaves mitigation, with a goal of reducing the rate at which the virus spreads.

Given an exponential growth rate and a population with no natural immunity, I'm not sure how well that's going to go, but there aren't a lot of options at this point.

As for the death rate, you're right - the current estimate based on the numbers from South Korea is around 1%. But that's not an even spread, and for people above 60 years in age, it's particularly brutal.

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Keep this in perspective. It's foolish to simply ignore this but equally foolish to suddenly feel we're all under a death sentence.

Am I under a death sentence from this virus? Statistically, I'm not.

As for perspective, with exponential growth in a population with no immunity, 1% death rate could be a really, really big number.

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says that complacency could lead to the death of "many, many millions".

I'm hoping you're right and I'm wrong, but until we know better, let's neither panic, nor encourage complacency.

-- David Cuny
My virtual singer development blog

Vocal control, you say. Never heard of it. Is that some kind of ProTools thing?