Bob,

You've obviously put a lot more thought into this than I have so bear with me on this.

The first thing that comes to me is how dense is the population of the city of LA vs NY City?

Based on Bing numbers:

Los Angeles
4.06 million by 1st July of 2020
Land Area: 468.67 square miles
8,662 people per sq. mi.

New York City
8.54 million (2016)
Land Area: 468.90 square miles
18,212 people per sq. mi.

The people in NY are packed in there like rats so the chance for infection is much greater. Even though the streets look empty supposedly the subways are still packed.

If I missed your point, (besides where are the bodies ?), then I guess I did all of that "cyphering" for nothing. LOL

I hope your numbers stay lower than expected.

Take care.