Bob, I've been to China and talked to the citizens. They are fed up with the dirty air, and think the sacrifices are worth it. I saw them moving ancient monuments out of the Yangtze valley so when it floods they won't lose their heritage. I saw the new apartment buildings being built to replace the ones that will be submerged when the river rose. And I saw the construction of the dam.
Yes they have a corrupt communist government, and well, we have a corrupt capitalist/"corporationalist" government. While I believe capitalist is superior to communist, I'm not blind to the flaws in our system.
I don't think it does any good to point fingers at others, we can't change them. But we can change ourselves and instead of being the only civilized country out of the Paris agreement (for one example) we could be leading the world by embracing solar and wind, painting our roofs white, planting trees, getting rid of the gas guzzlers, eliminating or greatly reducing our dependence on Air Conditioning, and doing other things to set an example, instead of fighting it for the profits of the oil and coal companies.
I've been in Florida since 1957 and through the years I've seen the waters rise, and I've seen the storms break records after record.
When I was a child, upper 80s in my home town made front page news. Now 90s are common.
I resolve to do what I can both in my yard and at the ballot box to help myself and others survive these newer, seeming more powerful storms. (back on topic).
And I feel if enough of us do this, instead of pointing fingers, we can make a difference. And I think the US should be the leaders, not the followers.
Note that CNN ran that. The very liberal "Blame Trump for everything since Lincoln got shot" media.
Trump opted out of the climate nonsense what, June? And within 90 days something HE did was responsible for hurricanes? To look at it from the other side, climate change happened during the 8 years of the liberal democrat president too. So is Obama 8 times as liable?
Everybody needs to turn the liberal news off. They do not deal in fact. They deal in bias and opinion skewed against the guy they don't like. They have never explained why, if Trump is the anti-Christ as they report, Hilary couldn't beat him.
Climate change has been in the mix for a century, since industry started polluting. It didn't just start to happen in 2017.
It's been a week. Part of this forum family are still w/o power, w/o access to gas, and knowing that the next rain can again bring flooding to their damaged homes. Mega positive thoughts to them during a prolonged recovery and may making music return for them as soon as possible.
Bob the figures I mentioned earlier concerning the States' contribution to global CO2 emissions don't come from China or some other 'crappy third world country'. They come from a US government agency using their own data. Unless you believe the US government is as corrupt as all the other governments you casually throw around by name (possible - you seem to be on the extreme end of scepticism), then you might have to face the possibility that the US is part of the problem of global warming, and therefore needs to be part of the solution. And sorry, the schoolroom excuse "but others are doing it too" is not going to make the world a better place.
Larry, are you being ironic? Curious you should enter a discussion that you have repeatedly declared 'tiresome'.
Larry didn't express himself very elegantly but his point as I read it is very valid. To quote a famous person "There are lies, damn lies and statistics." It's all about the methodology used, the details of the research etc.
Here's something I just found that supports what I've written:
Note China emits TWICE what the US does because this is using CO2 equivalents, not just CO2 alone. See the quote again. Then add up India, Brazil and Russia and what do you get? About the same as China. Now you're at 21.25 vs 6.34. Basically a bit over 3 to 1 concerning emissions of those countries and the US. This has been my basic point all along. All of those countries are dictatorships or in the case of Brazil corrupt on a scale comparable to Mexico. I basically don't believe what kind of propaganda they put out. Oh yes, we're doing this and we're going to do that. Maybe.
Having said that am NOT a denier. There certainly seems to be a long term problem. The question is what can we do about it? That's where I'm a skeptic. The following is where the idea comes from that if the US completely eliminated 100% of emissions the net result in global temps would be undetectable:
Not being any kind of expert in this field I try to keep an open mind but I do read a lot. My general feeling is I don't trust dictatorships and corrupt governments. The UN in general is very much anti American as well as anti Semitic for that matter. Putting the worst human rights violators on the UN Human Rights Commission and stuff like that.
The corruption at the UN is legendary so why would I put much stock in what they say or do? Basically I don't. There's the old joke about a broken clock being correct twice a day. Sure, the most corrupt organizations can be correct once in a while but since they have zero credibility with me, I basically ignore what the UN says.
The good news is the private sector ie the free market, is making great strides in reducing these emissions. It's basic economics. Build something that people want and be able to sell it at a profit and everybody's happy. The electric car and hybrid industries seem to be doing well and so is alternative energy sources. Far from being any kind of Luddite, I'm a high tech supporter and love this stuff.
It's been a week. Part of this forum family are still w/o power, w/o access to gas, and knowing that the next rain can again bring flooding to their damaged homes. Mega positive thoughts to them during a prolonged recovery and may making music return for them as soon as possible.
J&B
PS. And another one is following a similar path. Here's hoping for a northward that spares everybody who was previously hit.
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Remember Bob that the population of China is 1,340,000,000. The population of the USA is 324,000,000. About 1/3 the population of China. Wouldn't logic say that 3 times as many people emit 3 times the amount of hydrocarbons?
You are spot on though. Statistics can never lie. Statistics are not conditional. They are cold, factual and impersonal with no "but" attached. So, the fact that China has 3 times as many people may explain WHY they emit 3 times as much, but it's the 3 times more that damages the ozone.
I had the "pleasure" of watching the hippies protest a nuclear plant when it was being built 60 miles east of Cleveland. A reporter asked one of them "In a situation where nuclear power was the only option, would you choose nuclear power or no power?" and that politician tried to duck by saying "There will always be options." The reporter replied "That wasn't my question. My question was IF there were no options", and the politician walked away from the interview. People with an agenda seem to disregard statistics and look for scapegoats.
The following is where the idea comes from that if the US completely eliminated 100% of emissions the net result in global temps would be undetectable:
I'd be more interested in the article's thesis if the author's research and pronouncements weren't funded by the US fossil fuel industry.
Sorry to hear another storm is brewing so soon for you guys. And for other regions in your part of the world. Cyclone season is just around the corner here for northern Australia. Unfortunately more frequent and more intense storms are what we're getting too. Devastating to hear how people's lives are shattered.
Still keeping this a very friendly discussion with an open mind, here's a very interesting take from Princeton that I had not heard before. Instead of the Forbes article saying that we could reduce to zero with no change we have this from Princeton that says it won't matter what we do, we're all screwed anyway. That was part of my original point don't forget. Are humans really capable of stopping this anyway?
Again the cost of doing this drastic CO2 and related emissions reductions is extreme especially in the short run. Very disruptive to the economy, long term maybe not so bad but people are doing their jobs NOW, who can afford to be put out of work and go for a complete retraining effort in their 40's or 50's?.
And now this article basically says it's worse than they thought, so much has been built into the system that we wouldn't see any cooling effect for centuries no matter what we do.
I'm absolutely NOT saying that's good news, I'm saying lets not completely disrupt the economy, lets let the economies of the world boom and that could bring about some high tech solutions we're not aware of yet. Or, high tech solutions that help us to survive the coming climate change if it actually happens. I'm still 50/50 on that.
Why you ask? The 93% consensus you say? Because I'm old enough to remember the 70's. Does everybody freaking out about the coming ICE AGE mean anything to you? No? Well, somewhere around the mid 70's was the exact same stuff about climate change as now. I mean exact, same shrill announcements, same blame, it's all the industrialized West's fault lead of course by the US. BUT it was about COOLING. We all were going to freeze to death, the glaciers were coming back to Manhattan, all that stuff. Lots of talk about the middle ages when the Thames and some European rivers froze, there's old masters paintings of people ice skating on those rivers. It was all coming back.
Want to know what two possible solutions were? Drop giga tons of COAL DUST in the Artic and Antarctic to help melt the ice and/or to put up huge reflective mirrors in orbit to beam down warming sunlight. I kid you not guys, this was all over the news at that time. This is one reason us old timers take all the new talk about global warming with a big grain of salt. Anybody reading this who's too young to have lived through all that hysteria just Google it. It's all there.
And I don't want to hear about how our new computer models are so much better than then, how the sensors are better and all that. Everybody of every age thinks their stuff is the best there ever was or ever will be. How good will the new stuff be in 20 years? Will it produce the same results as now? Very doubtful.
I don't remember the ice age thing. Perhaps I never paid attention feeling it was "the sky is falling" extremism. I never built a bomb shelter or joined the Foxfire group of radicals either.
And as a moderate (slightly left on social issues, slightly right on fiscal issues) I tend to ignore press from both extremes. I don't get my news anywhere more left than The Atlantic or any more right than The Hill. Mostly I stay in the mainstream section in the middle taking the "Shows Liberal" and "Shows Conservative" press with a grain of salt. NPR, Washington Post, BBC, New York Times, AP, and Reuters work best for me, and since I don't watch TV, NBC, CBS, CNN, and ABC are out.
And that means both Fox and MSNBC are too radical for me as they fall outside the center area of this diagram. According to Politifact, Fox gets it 100% true 8% of the time, MSNBC gets 9%. Both get from "Half True" to "Pants On Fire" well over 70% of the time. So neither is news but instead propaganda.
Back on topic of hurricanes and other weather disasters...
Since almost all of the peer-reviewed, published climatologists agree that humans are probably at fault for the warming, and at least extreme contributors to it, I figure they are correct. After all science gave us the Internet, space flight, smart phones, and computers. Sure they can be wrong, but it's the current best bet. Remember they told us smoking was bad while the merchants of doubt told us 9 out of 10 doctors recommend Lucky Strike cigarettes.
And yes I know we might be screwed anyway. But sooner or later I'm going to die, I'm definitely and sadly screwed out of living forever.
I don't take the attitude that I may as well smoke, hang glide, drive recklessly, pick fights in bars with people bigger than me, use power tools without eye/ear protection, eat nothing but junk food because it tastes so good, skin dive with sharks, and so on. Instead I take care of myself so I can live as long as I can in a healthful state. It just makes sense to me. There is plenty of fun I can have with minimal risk.
And if the Earth is screwed and going to die anyway, I feel the same way, that I should treat it right and keep it healthy as long as I can, even if my contribution is in the great scheme of things very small.
And no, I don't believe switching from a coal and oil based energy system to a renewable will ruin the economy anymore than any other changes have. Sure it will put some out of work, and others to work, but that happened with the printing press, automobile, cotton gin, computer, transistor, sewing machine, nuclear reactor, television, supermarkets, department stores, e-tailers, and thousands of other changes.
Solar, wind, battery, and other industries will prosper as coal (which is dying due to market forces anyway) fades away.
The so-called NeoCons rallied around the invasion of Iraq because there was a 1% chance they were developing nukes, but dismiss the 97% chance that we are causing climate change that could mean the end of human life in a future generation. I personally don't get it.
I read a few university studies that say if we all paint our roofs white, it will buy 100 years. That would 'create' plenty of jobs (my roof is white BTW).
And I believe in both the private sector and the government. But I don't believe either one is 100% the way to go. Some things work better via the government, like fire, police, and military, and other things work better in the private sector.
Of course we in the US have been giving billions of dollars in tax breaks and outright corporate welfare to the private sector, making large segments no longer private, but instead quasi-government, and that's not free market economics. Too many times Privatization is a disguise for Profitization.
So the fact remains that the odds are that human activities are at least contributing to the extreme weather conditions, melting permafrost/ice caps, sea level rising, warming oceans, and so on.
And it's undeniable that human pollution is adversely affecting our collective health. So I feel it's my responsibility to do what I can to at least slow down those effects. And I'm not naive enough to assume that everyone else is going to help. But I am going to do my part and others are also doing theirs.
I survived Irma as I have done over a dozen others. Living in Florida I pay attention to these storms, and it does seem like they are getting worse and the truly devastating are coming more frequently - but that's not scientific - only my observation.
But if the vast majority of climatologists are correct, our habits are putting people like myself and millions of others at greater risk of extreme hardship. I for one don't want to contribute to that.
But that's my personal viewpoint, and everybody has a right to their own.
I think it is a big disgrace to all of us that all news organizations, paper, radio, and TV, have turned into National Enquires. They will print anything that will make money for them whether it is fact, speculation, or rumor. They love riots, pro athletes not standing for the Nation Anthem, anything controversial that they can blow out of proportion. There is very little unbias journalism, if any, left. This is why I try to listen to or read both sides, left and right, and try to make up my mind.
YMMV
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I don't remember the ice age thing. Perhaps I never paid attention feeling it was "the sky is falling" extremism. I never built a bomb shelter or joined the Foxfire group of radicals either.
And as a moderate (slightly left on social issues, slightly right on fiscal issues) I tend to ignore press from both extremes. I don't get my news anywhere more left than The Atlantic or any more right than The Hill. Mostly I stay in the mainstream section in the middle taking the "Shows Liberal" and "Shows Conservative" press with a grain of salt. NPR, Washington Post, BBC, New York Times, AP, and Reuters work best for me, and since I don't watch TV, NBC, CBS, CNN, and ABC are out.
And that means both Fox and MSNBC are too radical for me as they fall outside the center area of this diagram. According to Politifact, Fox gets it 100% true 8% of the time, MSNBC gets 9%. Both get from "Half True" to "Pants On Fire" well over 70% of the time. So neither is news but instead propaganda.
Back on topic of hurricanes and other weather disasters...
Since almost all of the peer-reviewed, published climatologists agree that humans are probably at fault for the warming, and at least extreme contributors to it, I figure they are correct. After all science gave us the Internet, space flight, smart phones, and computers. Sure they can be wrong, but it's the current best bet. Remember they told us smoking was bad while the merchants of doubt told us 9 out of 10 doctors recommend Lucky Strike cigarettes.
And yes I know we might be screwed anyway. But sooner or later I'm going to die, I'm definitely and sadly screwed out of living forever.
I don't take the attitude that I may as well smoke, hang glide, drive recklessly, pick fights in bars with people bigger than me, use power tools without eye/ear protection, eat nothing but junk food because it tastes so good, skin dive with sharks, and so on. Instead I take care of myself so I can live as long as I can in a healthful state. It just makes sense to me. There is plenty of fun I can have with minimal risk.
And if the Earth is screwed and going to die anyway, I feel the same way, that I should treat it right and keep it healthy as long as I can, even if my contribution is in the great scheme of things very small.
And no, I don't believe switching from a coal and oil based energy system to a renewable will ruin the economy anymore than any other changes have. Sure it will put some out of work, and others to work, but that happened with the printing press, automobile, cotton gin, computer, transistor, sewing machine, nuclear reactor, television, supermarkets, department stores, e-tailers, and thousands of other changes.
Solar, wind, battery, and other industries will prosper as coal (which is dying due to market forces anyway) fades away.
The so-called NeoCons rallied around the invasion of Iraq because there was a 1% chance they were developing nukes, but dismiss the 97% chance that we are causing climate change that could mean the end of human life in a future generation. I personally don't get it.
I read a few university studies that say if we all paint our roofs white, it will buy 100 years. That would 'create' plenty of jobs (my roof is white BTW).
And I believe in both the private sector and the government. But I don't believe either one is 100% the way to go. Some things work better via the government, like fire, police, and military, and other things work better in the private sector.
Of course we in the US have been giving billions of dollars in tax breaks and outright corporate welfare to the private sector, making large segments no longer private, but instead quasi-government, and that's not free market economics. Too many times Privatization is a disguise for Profitization.
So the fact remains that the odds are that human activities are at least contributing to the extreme weather conditions, melting permafrost/ice caps, sea level rising, warming oceans, and so on.
And it's undeniable that human pollution is adversely affecting our collective health. So I feel it's my responsibility to do what I can to at least slow down those effects. And I'm not naive enough to assume that everyone else is going to help. But I am going to do my part and others are also doing theirs.
I survived Irma as I have done over a dozen others. Living in Florida I pay attention to these storms, and it does seem like they are getting worse and the truly devastating are coming more frequently - but that's not scientific - only my observation.
But if the vast majority of climatologists are correct, our habits are putting people like myself and millions of others at greater risk of extreme hardship. I for one don't want to contribute to that.
But that's my personal viewpoint, and everybody has a right to their own.
Notes
Thanks for posting such a reasonable, non-partisan take on this issue! Some folks decide what they believe and then find sources to back them up. I, like you, prefer to deal in the reality and do the best we can with it.
Notes, that is a very reasoned approach to life and I think our differences are fairly minimal. You're a bit more liberal than I am (maybe) but so what. Doesn't mean anybody's right or wrong, this stuff is so complex.
You and I were both trying to make it in the music biz so I wasn't a big news hound either. Remember back in the day there was no internet, no cell phones, no nothing like that. We all got our information from the mainstream media like Walter Cronkite, newpapers and news mags like Time and Newsweek. It was either that or go to a university library and do your own research.
This site links way more newspapers talking about the coming ice age than I remember. At this point I remember seeing a Newsweek cover with some big glacier hovering over Manhattan or something like that plus some LA Times articles probably. Nobody had the distrust for the print media then that we have now.
At that time I became a huge fan of the Washington Post and the NY Times for breaking and then following Watergate. Definitely the high point of investigative journalism in my lifetime. Even though I was initially a Nixon supporter, that sure changed so when they also reported on global cooling and a possible ice age I thought there could be something to it.
Mario, I agree that the news industry has gone more towards sensationalism, propaganda, and yellow journalism in the past few decades (especially since the fairness doctrine was nuked by the gov't).
Bob, I don't think we are that far apart either.
The Ice Age thing was fun - I guess I was too busy gigging to notice.
Scientists make their best predictions with the tools they have at hand, and change those predictions as time goes on and more facts present themselves.
And then there are the pseudo-scientists that publish no papers in peer-reviewed scientific journals but instead create hysteria to make money. And often mainstream newspapers get hold of them and reprint.
"If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper you are mis-informed." -- Mark Twain
And I don't think that I or anybody else has the right to say their opinion is the truth. We all have to interpret the fact from the truths, half-truths, and outright lies that are presented to us.
That's part of the reason why I stay moderate and middle-of-the-road. I figure both extremes have an agenda and every incentive to exaggerate and lie to promote that agenda so the odds are what they call news is worthless as fact and nothing but propaganda. Which is born out by Fox with 41% of their news completely false and MSNBC 26%. And they aren't even the fringes. Mostly false numbers are 19% and 20% respectively. That's a bad percentage for something called "news".
I have some Bernie friends and some Trump friends, and somehow in spite of our different opinions about politics, we get along just fine.
I think it's important to do so, as political news tends to divide the proverbial house.
Me? When it comes to election time, I just try to pick the lesser of the two evils and hope I'm right.
And since the consensus of peer-reviewed, published, climatologists think we are either causing or contributing to global warming, I think it's the best conclusion we have with the current information.
And even if they are wrong and I am minimizing my pollution, it certainly doesn't hurt to take care of the planet's health. At least that's the way I see it.
Back-on-topic. It looks like Maria is going to miss us, but PR and some of the Lesser Antilles are in for a rough time. I've been to Puerto Rico and found some wonderful people and some incredibly good music there. I've given a donation to the Red Cross knowing my little bit does nothing, but it's combined with the little bit of others.
I've been to Mexico City too, and met some great people, and my heart goes out to them as well. At one time I considered moving to Mexico, the US dollar goes a long way down there, and I really like the Mexican people. But between earthquakes and water shortages I changed my mind.
I know Mexico gets bad propaganda up here, but I've been from Alaska to Costa Rica, from the UK to China, and down to Africa, and what I've learned is that the vast majority of people in the world just want to live a peaceful life, bring up a family, and make the world a little better for their children. But then governments (overt and covert) and hate instigators do their best to spoil it for most of us.
I've been working with an IRS auditor on a case and he's in San Juan Puerto Rico. We're professional adversaries but certainly not enemies. I represent the taxpayer and he represents the government.
When Irma was bearing down on San Juan I emailed to say I wish him and his family well and he emailed back thanking me and said they were closing the federal building for a couple of days. Then last week he said he was back for a half day but things were rough. Now I don't know what to think. San Juan just got slammed so hard it makes Irma look like a summer breeze because Irma wasn't a direct hit like Maria was. The news says power is out for 100% of the island and could be out for months. This is really bad for Puerto Rico. I doubt I'm going to hear from him any time soon and I hope he's ok.
Speaking of science, I saw earlier today that Maria exited the island right on top of Arecibo where the radio telescope is, I'm afraid it just got trashed maybe even ruined beyond repair.
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All the Xtra Styles PAKs 1 - 20 are on special for only $29 each (reg $49), or get all 209 PAKs for $199 (reg $399)! Order now!
Note: The Xtra Styles require the UltraPAK, UltraPAK+, or Audiophile Edition of Band-in-a-Box®. (Xtra Styles PAK 20 requires the 2025 or higher UltraPAK, UltraPAK+, or Audiophile Edition. They will not work with the Pro or MegaPAK version because they need the RealTracks from the UltraPAK, UltraPAK+, or Audiophile Edition.
New! XPro Styles PAK 9 for Band-in-a-Box 2025 and higher for Windows!
We've just released XPro Styles PAK 9 for Windows & Mac Band-in-a-Box version 2025 (and higher) with 100 brand new RealStyles, plus 29 RealTracks/RealDrums!
We've been hard at it to bring you the latest and greatest in this 9th installment of our popular XPro Styles PAK series! Included are 75 styles spanning the rock & pop, jazz, and country genres (25 styles each) that fans have come to expect, as well as 25 styles in this volume's wildcard genre: funk & R&B!
If you're itching to get a sneak peek at what's included in XPro Styles PAK 9, here is a small helping of what you can look forward to: Funky R&B Horns, Upbeat Celtic Rock, Jazz Fusion Salsa, Gentle Indie Folk, Cool '60s Soul, Funky '70s R&B, Smooth Jazz Hip Hop, Acoustic Rockabilly Swing, Funky Reggae Dub, Dreamy Retro Latin Jazz, Retro Soul-Rock Fusion, and much more!
Special Pricing! Until July 31, 2024, all the XPro Styles PAKs 1 - 9 are on sale for only $29 ea (Reg. $49 ea), or get them all in the XPro Styles PAK Bundle for only $149 (reg. $299)! Order now!
XPro Styles PAKs require Band-in-a-Box® 2025 or higher and are compatible with ANY package, including the Pro, MegaPAK, UltraPAK, UltraPAK+, and Audiophile Edition.
Video: Band-in-a-Box® 2025 for Mac®: VST3 Plugin Support
Band-in-a-Box® 2025 for Mac® now includes support for VST3 plugins, alongside VST and AU. Use them with MIDI or audio tracks for even more creative possibilities in your music production.
Band-in-a-Box® 2025 for Macs®: VST3 Plugin Support
Video: Band-in-a-Box® 2025 for Mac®: Using VST3 Plugins
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