thanks to Kevin, Floyd, Scott and the rest of you for a really interesting conversation! the chances of "making it" in the music business indeed seem pretty slim but it sure helps to have an accurate understanding of the challenges as a starting point! the point about how many good songs are written and shelved is eye-opening to say the least.
one of my favorite singer/songwriters is John Prine. his story is so cool. playing his songs in Chicago bars and getting discovered by a star. and then spending a lifetime doing his music at a level of stardom less than he had hoped for but a good career to say the least. but I have played around Chicago in 2012. and I have met some damn good singer/songwriters (arguably some better than Prine). but few (none?) of them will be discovered and get their big break like Prine did. and most of them seem to think if they keep doing it like it was done in the past they will get their chance.
the ideas discussed here about social media are great but that window may also be closing as millions of people have figured it out and are using it to great effect! hard to go viral when there are thousands of others already viraling! generally, by the time your friends hear about something it is already too crowded to get in on it!

my thought is the more things change the more they stay the same. just like your songs, you need a hook. you need something different. a different sound. a different look. a different story. The Beatles could have been just another doowop 60s band but they did something new. rap and hip hop music didn't even exist when I was a kid. when music videos first came out I'm sure there were bands who used that to achieve their stardom. so what's your hook?