Quote:

GLENn:
I'm just glad the word debt does not even cross my mind. Now if housing prices bottom out at the same time as oil I'm moving to a trailer park.

I just wish the American dollar would do better, it's killing industry here. And will kill tourism.

I hope what I fear about the tourism vs America thing doesn't go as I fear. Niagara Falls might as well shut down. We get a lot of Americans here, $50 US for a decent motel room and the only thing more expensive is booze and smokes.

I just explained to the bride that the broken washing machine isn't worth fixing it's 13 years old. Time for a new one. She looked at me funny, I think she's wondering about replacing me.



John:

The price of oil is going to be impossible to predict. Not because of the current state of the economy (that just makes it harder to predict - Alberta was rolling in money last year, but are now rolling in debt), but because we've used up about 1/2 of the oil reserves that are practical to recover (there's no point in using 1,000 btu's to get at oil that delivers 1,000 btu's). So many people think we can just keep on drilling and it will be there. Really? What happened to the iron mines in Wisconsin and the copper mines in Montana? I drove through towns called Bessemer, Ironwood and Iron River in 1964, and they were deserted then. Oil will go the same way. On the downside of the oil supply curve things will go nuts - the price will rise sharply causing people to stop driving, which will drive down the price, which will cause people to drive again, driving up the price. But as it runs out, the price will inevitably rise over the long run. Let's get used to it, that's the reality of the future. It took us about 100 years to use 1/2 the oil, but now that we're so good at using it, I wonder how long it will take to run out.

The US dollar will do better when the US gets a bit more out of debt - debt caused by easy credit, and mass consumer spending. Some of our fellow Canucks are smug, but shouldn't be as we're in the same boat, the only difference being that our banks were more tightly controlled and it helped a bit.

As for tourism, it's a multi-million dollar business in Victoria too; and it's going to be a thin year or two or three or more. The tourist industry is complaining about the passport requirements and how it's hurting tourism. What they forget is that most of our customers don't have that much spare change to toss out on travel. I really can't believe that requiring a passport to enter the US is a large hurdle. Today's National cited the cost of $87 US for a passport - that's peanuts compared to the cost of leaving your country for even a few days.

Tourism is dead for a while. Again, let's get used to reality as it is.

I spent most of two weeks in California in March - it was eye-opening and depressing. They and AZ were hit the worst.

Cheers - if that's the word. Good luck on a new washing machine. Maybe the auto plants need to think about manufacturing something we need that the Chinese don't make too well.

Yes, it sounds like doom and gloom, but I'm getting used to it.

Music helps a lot.

Glenn

PS - there was a time when I considered buying GM shares and didn't - today I was told I now I own some.

Last edited by Glenn Kolot; 06/01/09 10:11 PM.