Great observations Pat!
Going into a situation like that you may want to define a few things though.
1st-What is the ambition of the band?
There are some bands who's goal is to play popular covers...forever. There is nothing wrong with this, of course. There is a band near me that pulls in much more than some of the older national bands that open up for THEM! They even put out a CD called "Other People's Stuff Live!"
If the ambition of the band is to make it, but they really are not good enough to...you may have a chance there. The problem being is it a dead end road? In addition to that, many times they feel they can just write songs themselves...and it sounds local. I've found for these types of bands is, they are local because of the way they think. They have bought into the "smoke an mirrors" over how the industry works.
If they have ambitions of making it AND "get it" you probably have a pretty decent shot if YOUR songs are worth it

Another route to consider is find someone on youtube who is covering a song in the genre you like AND doing it REALLY well. Approach them with some original material along those lines. The nice part about it it is, you can gauge a bit of their success off of the number of views on the videos on their channel. You can even watch several artists for a few months to see if their views are growing or staying the same.
It's a new world!