Two pieces of good news I heard from Dr. Siegel on Fox this morning. The first is we don't hear much about cases in the southern hemisphere which ties in to the comment about not being able to return TP in Australia. It's summer there. Nothing much being reported in S. America or Africa. Same thing. This virus like other cold and flu viruses seems to be seasonal. It doesn't like hot weather, the UV goes up and that kills it. Spring is coming to all of us in the north. It appears it should be slowing down in the next month or so and on into the summer.

Second is a new report out of S. Korea. They were hit hard a month ago but had millions of testing kits. Their new stats show exactly what several doctors have been predicting over the last few weeks and that is the 3-4% death rate is way skewed because of not enough test kits to really get a handle on how many already have had it and recovered. We know the exact number of fatalities but don't know the other number. S. Korea now says the death rate is about .5% which makes a lot more sense. Still a worry for the elderly in nursing homes, none of this changes that but for everybody else probably not a big deal. I'm a pretty healthy 74, never smoked so no lung issues. Yes, I'm concerned and taking precautions but I'm probably fine if I get it. Got an email from the VA yesterday saying everybody entering the building is getting screened and no visitors will be allowed in most cases.

Tom Hanks and his wife Rita are in Australia right now under quarantine and they're posting on social media a lot. They're both a healthy 63 and he's diabetic. So far they're doing fine it's basically no different than a cold. Same with all the athletes like some NBA players. They will almost certainly be fine by next week sometime. Yes, this has people in a panic but that will pass. I agree with no immunity this will eventually go through the majority of the population but with a big "probable" slowdown coming with warmer spring and summer weather. That should allow a vaccine to come online in time for the next cold season. If not then we will cycle through this again in 8 or 10 months but they should certainly have a vaccine by then.

Basically no reason to panic but nursing homes really have to be careful, this good news certainly does not apply to them but otherwise we'll be fine and don't worry about the stock market either. This will turn out to be another huge buying opportunity just like 2008 was. There will certainly be short term economic disruptions like flying, large gatherings of people at sporting events, music festivals, your gigs Notes and all that stuff. But for you Notes, you're also in a warm, humid climate and it's getting hotter quickly now. There's nothing coming out of Mexico either, again hot and humid down there. I think this should pass in Florida and the South pretty quick. Right now it's the northern area's where winter is still solidly in force, it's cold and dry that will continue to get hit until spring.

Just a final comment about Italy. We tend to think of Italy as a first world country but it's really not, just like Greece and the whole eastern Mediterranean isn't. They're not the Congo but they're not all that advanced either but the good news for that area is it's pretty hot so that helps with this.

Bob


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