Originally Posted By: jazzmammal
There's nothing new concerning a huge glut of new cases here or anywhere else. A few hundred here, a few hundred there... Will it go up of course it will.

Here's a forecast model based on something more than anecdotal evidence:

https://time.com/5801726/coronavirus-models-forecast/

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What are we being told to do that we haven't been told to do during flu season for the last 30 years? Wash your hands, stay in if you're sick, cover your mouth and nose if you sneeze or cough, wear a face mask if you're concerned about infecting others but understand they don't help much in protecting you. Did I miss anything?

Large populations - entire countries - have been isolating themselves during this pandemic.

This action is significantly different than prior flu seasons.

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As far as lack of testing kits in the US yes that has caused us to be way behind other countries. Where are the US cases?

As of March 12, the Johns Hopkins researchers counted about 1,600 confirmed cases in the US. The actual number of cases is likely much higher.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/13/21178289/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-us-countries-italy-iran-singapore-hong-kong

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This tells me it's not that easy to catch.

The virus that causes COVID-19 seems to be spreading easily and sustainably in the community (“community spread”) in some affected geographic areas.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/transmission.html

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People and the news are acting like if you walk into a room with an infected person bam, you're dead just like that.


"Epidemiologists and disease modelers studying Covid-19 told Vox a more reliable global case fatality rate is about 1 percent — but there’s still a lot we have to learn about the disease. And even when we better understand how deadly this virus is, it’s likely to look pretty different country to country."

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

But the true danger of coronavirus is unlikely to be the death toll. Experts say health systems could easily become overwhelmed by the number of cases requiring hospitalisation – and, often ventilation to support breathing.

An analysis of 45,000 confirmed cases in China, where the epidemic originated, show that the vast majority of deaths were among the elderly (14.8 percent mortality among over 80s).

But another Chinese study showed that 41 percent of serious cases occurred among under 50s, compared with 27 percent among over 65s.

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common

-- David Cuny

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