Predictions, models. I get it. We have to have something to base decisions on. It's called plan for the worst just in case which is a good idea. Just for fun I did a little research into the SARS infection in 2003. The description, symptoms, infection rate sounds exactly like COVID 19. Look at the name SARS. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. The two names and descriptions could be interchangeable. If anybody cares read this article from 2003 about using models to predict SARS spread and consequences:

https://jech.bmj.com/content/57/10/831

Scroll halfway down and look at the charts. Same very dire predictions we're hearing now all based on models because hard data wasn't there yet. I'm really struck by the initial similarities between the two incidents. SARS never even came close to the predictions, barely a small fraction. 2003 was before social media and the absolutely suffocating news cycle which I think is making a huge difference in public perception. Don't panic over modeled predictions, wait for the facts.

What really upsets me is my 78 year old friend had to go do some shopping today. He decided to take a longer drive into Palm Springs. He called me this afternoon to say Trader Joes was completely packed with a line waiting to get in. The Vons was the same, Target ditto. He couldn't buy anything and it's all because of these stupid modeled predictions being completely hyped to the moon by social media and regular media. I'm making a prediction of my own: Those big numbers ain't gonna happen, this will blow over by April/May but not with millions getting infected and not 100,000+ deaths.

Basically all I'm doing is choosing to dwell on the positive rather than on the negatives. I'm well aware of both. Here's a quick quote I just saw:

Nelson Michael, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research at Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, also expressed cautious optimism during a briefing on COVID-19 on March 5. "This is a respiratory virus and they always give us trouble during cold weather," he said, predicting that the coronavirus may react like the flu and cause "less trouble as the weather warms up."

This ties in to what I posted the other day. Is it a fact yet, no but I choose to think this is the case and we'll just have to wait and find out.

If it turns out to be really bad, then freak out. Why do I say that? Because other then the usual standard precautions there's nothing else we can do anyway. Either we get it or we don't and even if I get it I'm not afraid of the odds. Of course of you guys suddenly don't hear from me ever again, well....

Bob

Biab/RB latest build, Win 11 Pro, Ryzen 5 5600 G, 512 Gig SSD, 16 Gigs Ram, Steinberg UR22 MkII, Roland Sonic Cell, Kurzweil PC3, Hammond SK1, Korg PA3XPro, Garritan JABB, Hypercanvas, Sampletank 3, more.