PG Music Home Forums General Discussion Off-Topic Covid 19 Virus (Corona)

A little bit of cheery news here in Hong Kong. Due to all the Covid-19 precautions, our annual flu deaths are way down and the flu season has been shortened. Death rate down by at least a couple of hundred. Pollution over China is also way down. We will learn a lot from this episode. It seems, if you can believe what you're told, that China and more importantly S. Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong seem to be keeping a lid on Covid, at least for the moment. We've gone back to serious self-isolation as there is a spike due to infected folks coming back to Hong Kong.

Bob,

These are my thoughts...


Who knows? You're an accountant. If you don't know why on earth would I know???? I'm just a secondary high school teacher.

My immediate concern is not when this is over, it's getting to tomorrow.

Getting to the future requires travelling through the present. If tomorrow doesn't come for me, then no amount of my worrying about world economies is going to amount to anything. I'll cross that bridge later in the journey, if I get to it.

At the moment, I'm just doing all I can to ensure that I make it through today.


Did you ask how many tests they'd done? The numbers you give are not that relevant if you don't know how many tests were conducted.

Here in Australia, the government is not testing everyone. This means there could be heaps of people around who have the virus and don't know. That's why I'm a supporter of social distancing.

Regards,
Noel

I don't care what those numbers are, I don't care what the percentages or projections are, that's not my point. IT'S IRRELEVANT.

This 2 trillion stimulus package is designed to get us through 4 months, that's it. After that there's no more bullets in the gun. Unemployment is not going to pay your rent or mortgage, or car payments or maintain your standard of living. It's just to try to hold things together and keep us from starving during that period. If you don't bloody well get your job back fairly soon you're toast economically. What about past recessions you say, people survived for years before they got rehired or found new jobs. This isn't the same scenario and I'm not going to explain it it would take way to long. Just believe me here.

Just one example. You have a mortgage but are forced to default on it. Normally it goes back to the bank and they sell it. The numbers even during a very bad recession is manageable because EVERYBODY is not being forced into foreclosure. If the ENTIRE economy stays shut down for a year or more the banks have absolutely no one to sell those houses to. The banks go under because the FDIC means nothing if there's nothing coming into the treasury. Boeing goes bankrupt because there is NOBODY to buy their planes, the airlines go under because nobody's flying and so on throughout the economy from cars to TV's to computers to casino's to EVERYTHING. The authorities all know this in every modern country in the world.

Read this article about flu cases and flu deaths.

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

I'm not comparing the flu to COVID 19, I am saying we've been willing to go to work have a good life and enjoy our good economy in spite of these flu numbers. By themselves these numbers are alarming, no? Where is the outcry that we should shut our schools and everything else until these numbers are eliminated? Somebody earlier said we're talking about DEATH here. Right, what about these deaths? The flu will never be eradicated because a very large number of the population refuse to get vaccinated. The estimate I think is about 30%. Great, 70% is still a decent number and so far we're all perfectly willing to live with the resulting serious flu cases and deaths. Just another cost of doing business, right?

Why are you guys not jumping up and down, blaming Trump and everybody else for not doing something about it? We should be ignoring peoples religious and personal beliefs and passing laws you MUST get vaccinated or go to jail. (Actually, not a bad idea) The world governments could have done the same thing they're doing now by deciding these flu deaths are unacceptable and nobody does anything until we get a better handle on it. Why haven't they?

Because the general public wouldn't stand for it that's why. In other words, those deaths ARE acceptable. We hope for the best, plan for the worst but overall we also have to accept reality, we're all going back to work, no not by April 15 and maybe not by May either but sooner than you think. We simply cannot afford to do otherwise. Yes it will be sugarcoated somewhat, they'll make us believe it's the best thing and NO it's not just because Trump wants to get re-elected because all the major governments will do the same and believe me they're already planning for it. They're not going to throw the entire world into the economic stone age because of this virus. I'm thinking it's not going to be that terrible but even if it is, we literally have no choice, we will just have to live with it.

Lets say the hopeful thinking comes true, that spring is here it will quiet down somewhat, almost go away in the summer but comes roaring back in the fall. We're going to shut down all the schools again, kill the entire new school year and everything else for another 6 months or whatever? No way will that happen. There is no second 2 trillion dollar bailout coming, we'd be on our own.

And yes folks, if we keep the world shut down for a long time (pick a number) like a year or more the the cure IS worse than the disease. It is "only" about a 1 percent fatality rate and of course 1 percent in absolute terms is a very large number. But...we can live with it and survive very well not because it's ok, or we're murderous serial killers or anything like that, it's because we'll have no choice. We'll live with it, keep working to eradicate it and move on.

Bob

Hi Josie,

Those statistics say it all. It's definitely a virus to be wary of.

Here in Australia, because of the measures that we now have in place, the number of new cases has fallen for the last two days. They're the vertical light-blue bars on the graph.

Hopefully this continues. I'm taking it as a positive sign that isolating oneself where possible, practising social distancing and keeping hands washed is working.



As of March 25, we have identified 2,423 cases and there have been 8 deaths. Our population is around 25.5 million people.

A large proportion of our cases -- I'm guessing but the graph shows that it's around 70 - 80% -- have come from overseas. The pie chart below shows which countries were the origins of the travellers. The two large sections are Dark Blue (Europe) and Lightest Blue (The Americas).

Hi Tony,

I agree. The top graph that I posted in my reply to Sundance shows that the number of new cases for the last two days have fallen noticeably. This is great news.

I'm more than happy to pay the price of inconvenience to achieve this.

From what I've heard, and seen on Youtube, the journey through a full-blown case of COVID-19 is extremely painful and it seems that it's not possible without external ventilation.

Also, because lungs are so badly damaged by the virus, I imagine that there are long term problems for many people who survive. I haven't read too much about this yet, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/what-happens-to-peoples-lungs-when-they-get-coronavirus

Maybe we are the "Lucky Country" once more!

All the best,
Noel

Hi Neil,

I was talking to a work colleague today about how countries who were significantly exposed to SARS back in 2003'ish are much better prepared than us in fielding COVID-19. We mentioned Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea... these are doing an excellent job!

These COVID success-stories provide good beginning models for other countries to work with for the next time we see a pandemic. (I'm pretty sure it will arise again.)

Regards,
Noel

Hi again, Neil,

Just in case you are interested, here is a snapshot of COVID-19 as of March 24 in a few countries.

South Korea have definitely kept the lid on the virus in a big way. What makes this even more impressive is that their population is around 51 million people.



If you are interested in seeing more pretty amazing COVID-19 graphs, go to...

https://www.statista.com/chartoftheday/

...and have a look around. David Cuny posted this link the other day and there are some pretty amazing data presentations at the site.

Regards,
Noel

Thanks for the graphs. Interesting times. I spend my time when not on line teaching watching CNN, Fox, BBC, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, RU, France 24, Sky TV etc etc. It can get overwhelming so I read Reuters for peace of mind.

Here's an excerpt from an article released late night about the timeline we were discussing.

Fauci: 'You don't make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline' on relaxing public health measures

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, had a straightforward message Wednesday night about how long the novel coronavirus could affect daily life in the US: "You don't make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline."

"You've got to be realistic," Fauci told CNN's Chris Cuomo on "Prime Time."

"And you've got to understand that you don't make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline. So you've got to respond, in what you see happen. And if you keep seeing this acceleration, it doesn't matter what you say. One week, two weeks, three weeks -- you've got to go with what the situation on the ground is."

His comments appear at odds with President Donald Trump's growing desire to ease the public health guidelines that have shuttered businesses and kept workers at home as the virus has spread. The President has even said he wants the nation "opened up and just raring to go by Easter" -- a date just weeks away that few health experts believe will be sufficient in containing the outbreak.

"You may see in a relatively shorter period of time, when you're seeing the inkling of the flattening and coming down," Fauci said in reference to slowing the speed of the outbreak. "But you know, you can't make an arbitrary decision until you see what you're dealing with. You need the data."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-timeline-cnntv/index.html

Bob,

They had a write up about Dr Anthony Fauci in the Melbourne paper a few days. He's an extraordinary individual. I doubt that there is a more competent expert on epidemics anywhere. What he says makes perfect sense. The virus controls the timeline.

How people respond to the virus and impede its transmission also impacts on the timeline. Ultimately, though, the virus has the last say because it doesn't just disappear in 24 hours.

Regards,
Noel

At least Sco Mo told folks to expect at least 6 months. I just hope he can get his business hibernation to work. If so there is at least some hope down the track.

Tony

Noel,

We appreciate your calm, studied data-based approach. We are a bit weary of posts that are overly didactic and filled with imperative sentences.

Thank you,

J&B

You're not alone...

The answer to Bob's question is simple. When the fear of starving or better yet watching your kids starve overcomes your fear of going out to work, you will go back to work.

Not even the US government has enough printing presses to sustain this fore more than a few months.

This is not the end of the world. Worst case millions die and the rest become immune.

This is not a safe planet and never has been. Keep dumping plastic in the ocean and you are going to die. Yellow Stone blows it top and you are going to die. Some fool touches the wrong button and you die. Asteroid....and on and on.

Amazon will sell you a pretty good Hazmat suit that will protect you even in the old folks home where everyone has the virus.

You don't have to die from this, just get off your butt and take some action.

In Victoria, Dan Andrews will probably head off in his own direction eventually. I was reading The Age tonight and it was saying about how the federal government will ultimately be supporting tweaks that states make to the existing restrictions.

Each state has its own unique circumstances to consider so it makes sense to me.

Regards,
Noel

I don't care what the percentage is, if I die it's 100%. If my wife dies it's 100%.

My lungs are important, even if I survive what about permanent reduced lung function? I make my living with my lungs, saxophone, wind synthesizer, flute, and vocals all need strong lungs.

Understanding exponential curves, IMO a lock-down is the right approach. This "herd immunity" concept means many more people will die than if we practice "flattening the curve"

If we go for the herd immunity concept, the hospitals will be overloaded way beyond capacity, many people who could be saved will die. The 1%, 4% or whatever the fatality rate is now will skyrocket and the very medical professionals we count on will have their numbers greatly reduced. It takes years to train a new doctor or nurse. So what about next year, or what about if you get some other disease and there is no one there to help you?

The president seems to be saying, "You should give up your life for the sake of the stock market and for my re-election". Remember, 80% of the stocks are owned by the 5%. The oligarchy who are really running the show.

I don't care if the stock market hits a new low, I don't care if the hedge fund investors go broke, I do care if I live or die. My life is more important than Trump's, the economy, and everything else on the planet.

For those who say, "Your lives are less important than the economy" I say, do with the kings of old did, get on your proverbial horse and get in the front line of battle. If you think our lives are that trivial, then I suggest, 'You first'.

Sorry about the rant, but the complete mismanagement by our sefl-called "genius" is threatening my life. And remember, the Captain is always responsible for the condition of the ship. He can't blame the last captain or the first mate. It's his responsibility.

And not for a bit of humor to lighten up the day:

Love that pic Notes.... Here's another:

Notes,

I'm with you 100%.

My main concern is my son. He's a h*ll of a lot more important to me than the economy. My secondary concern is the rest of my family.

Last of all, I'd like to live through this thing myself.

Trump, as always, is looking out for himself and his donors. I don't think the country and the individual lives of Americans matter to him at all. I wish I was wrong, but I don't think I am.

Yes and I repeat. Those who want us to give up our lives for the sake of the economy - please lead the way.

When the titanic hits an iceberg, the first mate isn't to blame, the captain is. So if Trump wants us to give up our lives, he must go down with the ship or I'm not listening.

Bob

I just had a thought today. If I die from this virus, my wife is going to sell my Guitar Collection for what I told her I paid for them.