And, these two comments doesn't take into account new therapies being worked on right now that can handle this thing. I'm getting fairly optimistic about this.
I hope you're right.
But the 1918 pandemic trailed off after the initial wave in spring. This created a false sense that it was over, but returned the following winter harder and stronger.
Oh, I totally get that. Don't want to be all light and happiness, we definitely have to be vigilant and careful.
The linear thing I got from an interview with the head of a big NY hospital. She said in spite of the huge uptick in cases, it was slowing in the last few days to a more linear manner. Cuomo also said two days ago the number of new hospitalizations was slowing. These two reports are probably not absolutely linear but closer to that than exponential.
Maybe.
I'm probably guilty as charged in looking at these things from the positive side rather than the negative. Also, keep in mind all the stories about people who have the virus and never had symptoms or mild symptoms, never got tested so nobody knows about them. That number could dramatically skew the death rate percentage quite a bit lower. The confirmed deaths is a fixed number but the real total of cases is probably much higher than reported. Another way of positively looking at this.
Maybe.
The people who died from the malaria drug were self medicating, not under a doctors care at least from what I've read. One case was an idiot in Arizona who decided to ingest some pool cleaner because it contains the same chloroquine phosphate that the malaria drug has. Another case was in Nigeria, same thing. I just did a quick search now and that's all that popped up. Certainly it's too soon to say if that can work or not but several doctors and researchers have said it looks promising. Chloroquine is another one of those risk/reward things. Malaria is really deadly so this stuff can save your life if you don't die from the drug first. Apparently it's safe enough under a doctors supervision but unfortunately it's not for us old folks. Too risky.
And David, since this is a music forum I hate to say this but when people return to work that won't include us. A structured, formal work environment can be well controlled but a "lets have a party!" gig or concert? Obviously not so unfortunately I'm seeing a bleak year or maybe longer of no gigs. Even Broadway shows and movies. After all this trauma, who's going to want to sit in a crowded theater with 1,500 people? It's hard enough for actors and musicians, this is so sad.
I'm seeing a bleak year or maybe longer of no gigs. Even Broadway shows and movies. After all this trauma, who's going to want to sit in a crowded theater with 1,500 people? It's hard enough for actors and musicians, this is so sad.
This is definitely going to change our culture. Certainly for a while. And maybe forever.
There are restaurants, already operating on a razor-thin budget, that will never come back. In the same way Amazon killed book stores this event could tip many retail stores out of business as more and more people become comfortable with shopping online. Same with sports as people have found other things to do with their time. And, unfortunately, same with music.
So much in our culture and economy (speaking of USA) is so completely non-essential. And so much of it is successful only because of extremely aggressive and incessant marketing to bored people who already have all of their basic needs met. I've always felt much of what we have built is a house of cards. I guess something like this can cause it all to come crashing down.
On a lighter note, +++ Eventide Audio +++ sent an e-mail with photos some of their employees working from home. (side note, Eventide is located near New York City which is getting hit hard). Along with photos of their employees Eventide sent this altered photo of The Beatles practicing social distancing.
All I have to say is this: If anyone thinks the economy is more important than their very life, go ahead, lead the way, you first.
I have self-preservation instincts. Dying for the stock market is not in my plan.
I have a decent sense of local economics. I'm self-employed. I've made a living doing music and nothing but music for most of my life. The mortgage is paid off, I've got some savings, and other than minimal car payments, I'm completely out of debt.
I've been to: 49 US states, Puerto Rico, St. Thomas, St. Croix & St John (USVI), more than half the Canadian provinces, 7 Mexican states, Bahama Islands, Bermuda Islands, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Saint-Martin/Sint Maarten, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, England, Scotland, Wales, Gibraltar, The Netherlands, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Morocco, Czech Republic, Austria, Australia, Russia, Japan, and China (From the Great Wall down to Hong Kong). And I'm still out of debt.
I practice something the government doesn't do, I live below my means. I don't spend money I don't have and I don't spend all the money I make.
I won't die to keep the modern robber-barons comfortable in their gilded palaces.
There are plenty of companies working on vaccines and treatments. If we can hold off long enough, many fewer people will die.
If we go the "herd immunity" plan and put everyone back to work, the death rate will skyrocket. There will be no available hospital beds, doctors will either quit or get the disease (some already have), and those doctors still on the job will have to say "You can live, but I have to sentence you, you, you, and you to death because there are too many here to treat with the resources we have available."
Every rancher knows, when one or more cows get a virus, immediately isolate them.
If it's good enough for the steers, it's good enough for me.
Again, if you want to die so the super-rich can stay super-rich, go ahead. I'll not be joining you if I can help it.
Insights, incites, and self-preservation by Notes
PS - Historically musicians have done OK in depressions. People need to escape reality.
Since when does federal assistance require adoration from governors? I guess since he's not getting his ego stroked by his cult at the rallies then someone has to fill the void.
"Trump demands appreciation from governors for coronavirus response"
Whether we realize it or not, this is a very scary precedent to set. Please note that I spelled "precedent" correctly, ... unlike president cheeto when he tried to spell "precedent".
Even though COVID-19 is spreading around the world like a it's a whirlwind, positive stories are beginning emerge that indicate we are tackling the turmoil well...
Since when does federal assistance require adoration from governors? I guess since he's not getting his ego stroked by his cult at the rallies then someone has to fill the void.
"Trump demands appreciation from governors for coronavirus response"
Whether we realize it or not, this is a very scary precedent to set. Please note that I spelled "precedent" correctly, ... unlike president cheeto when he tried to spell "precedent".
Bob, I have to say this is just too funny. Here in SoCal probably 70% of all my musician buddies agree with you, on a gig nobody cares in the slightest what anybody's political beliefs are and I've said many times I will not allow political differences to get between me and friendship. Friends are too important.
Having said that, in the spirit of us being good musical buddies because we would be if we ever had a chance to meet and play together, your interpretation of this video is pure liberal spin. He didn't say that at all, there is no "demand" there. Look at the props he gave to Gov Cuomo who totally hates him. In spite of that I totally admire the way Cuomo is doing his daily pressers. Politically I can't stand him but during this crisis he has completely shut that rhetoric down and is doing a fabulous job of calmly and clearly communicating what's going on in New York and I give full credit to him. All of his talks are up on YouTube within hours of him doing it, they're well worth checking out.
Contrast that with the governor of Washington. Why did he go there? There's no need for that right now. If Cuomo can do it why can't he? Trump is a counter puncher he simply will not take that crap which is why his supporters love him in spite of all his obvious flaws.
Back to Cuomo, I watched him this morning and there is some good news there. He said that while the cases are obviously going up and will continue going up the rate of doubling has dramatically slowed. A week ago they doubled in 2 days, then it went down to 4 days and now as of this morning the doubling is down to 6 days. That progress.
You take care my friend and I sincerely mean that.
Those with a mathematical background might appreciate this insight.
Yesterday I found the below log-log graph analysis of COVID-19 on Youtube. It is fascinating that the virus initially tracks the same in all countries.
This graph also very clearly shows when countries are succeeding in surmounting the virus's impact.
This is a really great find. Important details explained informatively, including how the data can be evaluated and analyzed in different ways, sometime leading to misinterpreted results. Thanks for sharing.
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I wonder how many thousands of American lives would have been saved if he had listened to the health officials and the intelligence officials and instituted the same measures we are taking now back in January when he was warned.
100,000 - 200,000 dead Americans doesn't sound like a success to me. Most presidents know enough to realize the things they don't understand and that's why they have so many experts there to advise them.
Trump only listens to them when he realizes he has no other choice.
I wonder how many thousands of American lives would have been saved if he had listened to the health officials and the intelligence officials and instituted the same measures we are taking now back in January when he was warned.
100,000 - 200,000 dead Americans doesn't sound like a success to me. Most presidents know enough to realize the things they don't understand and that's why they have so many experts there to advise them.
Trump only listens to them when he realizes he has no other choice.
I wonder how many more would have died if he didn't stop traffic from China when he did? Remember all the liberals were calling it a racist act.
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You know, arguing about politics is not going to solve this problem. All it does is create a lot of noise and distracts from the problem at hand.
While I have an opinion of Trump and his approach to the world, I'm not going to express it here because it doesn't help make the PG Music corner of the world a better place. Likewise, I'm saving my thoughts regarding Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Emmanuel Macron, Xi Jinping, etc., for comments on articles in my local newspapers.
All we as individuals can do right now is to put politics aside and concentrate all energies on doing the best we possibly can to avoid circumstances that favour transmission of the virus. There's a lot of good medical advice out there and by following it, the chances of surviving COVID-19 increase greatly.
That's what I'm doing. And I want to do it with a smile on my face.
I wonder how many more would have died if he didn't stop traffic from China when he did? Remember all the liberals were calling it a racist act.
Trump has repeatedly claimed that Democrats have “loudly criticized and protested” his imposition of the travel restrictions, and have called the decision “racist.” But while leading Democrats have been outspoken in their criticism of the president’s overall response to the epidemic, very few have criticized his decision to impose limited travel restrictions.
Hi Guys Just dropping in to wish you all a safe and creative time during this crisis.Praying for Italy and Spain right now hoping for a downturn in numbers.I know Spain pretty well and the Health service is top notch and even it seems to have got over run. Good news today on the 5-13min test kit developed by ABBOTT in the US. Well alot of people who were saying the world was in Crisis for the last 20years now know what a real global Crisis looks like!
All the PG music fans and followers have no excuse and plenty of time to produce a record amount of music of the masterpiece variety rather than the pandemic variety hopefully, Liam Gallagher from Osasis said (paraphrasing) that he feels that their is a great song out their for him and if he is not out their trying to find it some other songwriter will grab it first! I am not sure that this is true but just in case get out their looking!Stay safe and here is an uplifting and melencholy song all at the same tim enjoy Hugh
I was curious about testing in LA County. The County has a population of about 10 million and right now the numbers are miniscule. As of noon today it's 2,474 confirmed cases and 44 deaths. The big deal though is testing so I found this article from two days ago. The guy is both an ER physician and the Medical Director of the LA County Fire Dept.
I've read this twice now to get a good grip on what he's saying. It's very easy to say "Where's the tests", "why do other countries have all this testing?" "It's all Trumps fault", etc, etc. This is a very complex question, read what he says about this test, that test, false negatives, does a hospital have their own lab or do they send it out? A lot of moving parts here. He's not mentioning the type of test the President just talked about this afternoon from Abbot. It's also very interesting reading his explanation of why doing testing on people with no symptoms is really a waste of time which sort of coincides with what I've said already, the reported death rate is way too high. We'll never know for sure though and against that is the point about overwhelming the healthcare system. If that happens the death rate surely goes up.
Overall a good read even though I'm not thrilled with his conclusions especially considering how low the numbers are right now. It just seems inconceivable to me that we can go from 2,500 cases to some huge number in a fairly short period of time. LA is nowhere near as densely populated as NYC. Then with all the personal sanitation and social distancing going on but yeah, he's the doctor and he's on the front lines so...
To keep my sanity I keep focusing on the good news stories, Tom Hanks and his wife are fine, Prince Charles at age 71 is fine and on and on with many stories about older folks who got through this in good shape. It's a risk for sure but it's not an automatic death sentence.
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