It goes both ways for me. But, I think I more often create chord progression (I'm a lead guitarist by trade) and then write a melody and lyric simultaneously. I'm 73 years old and still practice guitar at least an hour a day, although I no longer play professionally. I'm pretty much a chord guy, so a lot revolves around that. But, more directly to your question, I'd say 60% of my songs originated from a chord pattern I come up with just by "messing around" and 40% are composed around a pre-written lyric.
I play in multiple genres so I just let that take of itself as the process evolves.
Good question with some interesting comments. Take care and be safe ...
Alan