Billy,

Thanks. We'll get through it.

With this weekend being Chinese New Year celebrations and Valentines day, it's pretty easy to see why authorities went for lockdown. The potential to create a disaster from these two events is significant. Since we've been there and done lockdown before, while it's annoying, we now know what to do and we know its effective.

I'm so sorry to hear about so many people dying. 28,000 people is an enormous number. And you'd probably multiply that by 10 or 20 for the number of people who will be deeply saddened by the passing of their loved ones. Here in Australia, we've been spared such agony.

Wherever I go in my area, 9/10 people are wearing masks. Not so much outside, if space permits for social distancing, but certainly in shops, and other indoor settings where the public go.

When I think of reducing my chances of catching COVID, I think of the Swiss Cheese model below (virologist Ian Mackay came up with this). Each slice of cheese has holes in it so one slice is not 100% effective at stopping everything. When multiple slices are randomly assembled, though, chances increase that anything that passes through earlier slices of cheese will be stopped by a latter slice.

I like this analogy.

Regard,
Noel

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